Predicting The Patriots 53-Man Roster, Part One

Roster cut-down day is nearing for all 32 NFL teams. I’ve decided to try my luck at predicting what the illustrious and unpredictable Bill Belichick’s roster will look like with just 53 players. To start, the offensive skill positions of quarterback, running back, fullback, wide receiver and tight end will be looked at. 

Patriots Quarterbacks (2)

Tom Brady, Jarrett Stidham

Jarrett Stidham looked real good in preseason week one, following a solid outing from Brian Hoyer. However, Stidham continued to look impressive, even improving in throwing the football quicker. For example, in college and even early in camp, when Stidham felt pressure he would scramble and hold on to the ball for far too long. However, he has been stepping up and feeling composed in the pocket even if the pressure is coming and has been able to release the football at a quicker pace with each preseason game. According to Doug Kyed of NESN, Stidham got rid of the football in just 2.82 seconds in preseason week 3. That was better than both weeks 1 (3.23 seconds) and 2 (2.9 seconds). So far this preseason, Stidham is 43 for 62 passing for 506 yards and 2 touchdowns. That’s a 104.6 QB rating. 

Brian Hoyer Gets Cut

Hoyer is a seasoned vet and has certainly looked better this offseason then he has in the past. That improvement does have something to do with Stidham, however. Everyone, including Hoyer, knows Stidham isn’t going anywhere this offseason, what with him being a fourth-round selection and all. So it is ultimately Hoyer’s roster spot to lose. He has to beat Stidham for the backup role, or he is out of here. Unfortunately, Stidham has been uber-impressive, continuing to build upon his last performance. Hoyer, however, came on strong to start the preseason but didn’t look too good in week 2. It’s also important to note that he did not take a single snap in preseason week three, while Stidham played every snap following Brady’s start. Looks to me like Stidham will be the backup and Hoyer is the bait being cut loose. 

Patriots Running Backs (5)

Sony Michel, James White, Damien Harris, Rex Burkhead, Brandon Bolden

Sony Michel, James White and Damien Harris are locked at this position to me. Michel and White are the more obvious ones, but Harris, who looked impressive in his week 2 preseason debut, may not be. However, being drafted in the third round of this past NFL draft, the Patriots would not lose that third-round value in his first-ever season. It’s important to note that he has been dealing with injuries this summer and if Belichick needs the space, could put him on the Physically Unable to Perform list. At this time, however, I have him on the roster for week 1. 

Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden round out the 5 running backs. Burkhead, despite dealing with a plethora of injuries over the last few seasons, does provide depth and a reliable passing option out of the backfield. As for Bolden, he was a core special teamer for the Patriots from 2012-2017 before he was released last offseason and signed with the Dolphins. His presence was sorely missed and it was known that they were going to bring Bolden back after releasing him last offseason, but needed to attend to other roster matters and hoped no other team would claim him. They won’t make that mistake again. 

Rookie Nick Brossette To Practice Squad

The young, undrafted free agent running back Brossette was always a long shot to make the team. The competition in the running back room simply was too much for Brossette. However, he has looked good in the preseason and might be too good to release. It’s a risk putting him on the practice squad, but it’s worth taking a chance that no team will take him after putting him on the practice squad. 

Patriots Fullbacks (1)

James Devlin

Devlin has been a veteran on the Patriots since 2012. In that time, he has risen to the top of the league, being considered one of, if not, the best fullback in the league. Last season, he recorded a career-high 4 touchdowns, improving upon his game as a goalline threat. He also had a career-high in both receptions (12) and carries (6), which further shows how his utilization went way up last season. His value to the team continues to rise, especially following a career-best season, statistically. 

Jakob Johnson is an international player, therefore he can be placed on the International Pathway Program spot, which does not count against either the roster or practice squad. He has yet to show enough for teams to claim him either and he’s ultimately a free player for the Patriots as he doesn’t subtract roster spots from anyone, or even practice squad spots. So, why not keep him around on the International Pathway spot? 

Andrew Beck is another fullback/tight end option for New England. With his versatility to play at tight end, he would be a nice keep on the practice squad. 

Patriots Wide Receivers (7)

Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, Phil Dorsett, Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry, Braxton Berrios, Matthew Slater

Julian Edelman is the face of the receiving core in New England, no doubt. There’s absolutely no doubting he makes the roster. As for Josh Gordon, he isn’t coming off of any major injury and posted fantastic stats with the Patriots while he was clean. The only question is how long Gordon can stay clean off the field? 

Phillip Dorsett shows excellent awareness and understanding within the Patriots system. Tom Brady has shown trust in Dorsett as well and that helps big time when considering whether or not to keep him on the roster. 

The Rookies

As for the two rookie receivers I have making it, they both have question marks. Jakobi Meyers has been hands down the most impressive receiver in camp. He has shined bright in the preseason as well. He has incredible chemistry with both Hoyer and Stidham displayed in those preseason games. However, he isn’t linked up with Brady yet. He has shown mental lapses at times when running routes and playing with the starters. He has been the cause for two of Brady’s helmet tosses. Yet, they cannot release him for those things because of how impressive he has been overall. 

N’Keal Harry, on the other hand, displayed his strength and athletic ability. He can bully corners with his size and then jump over those same corners and make a contested catch. However, he was outplayed by Meyers when he was healthy. Now, with Harry dealing with a hamstring issue, he hasn’t been able to get on the field. Not being able to practice as a rookie in the toughest system in all of football really hurts. But he is way too good to be released and the Patriots are not about to cut or waive their first-round pick to the practice squad in his very first season. 

Braxton Berrios and Matthew Slater

As for Berrios, he provides some decent value. He was placed on Injured Reserve (IR) for all of his rookie season last year. While he was just a 6th round pick last season, he impressed at camp and OTAs as a rookie. This year, he showed a bit of improvement as a shifty slot receiver. Though he missed the third week of the preseason, he looked good in week 1 as a receiver and in week 2 as a returner. His value as a true slot guy behind Edelman and as a solid punt returner adds the risk of him being claimed off the Patriots practice squad. He wouldn’t garner much in a trade either at this point, so even that option isn’t the most appealing. It’s likely they try and keep him around, which is why I have him making the roster.

Matthew Slater is a special teams’ ace. He has been for years now. The Patriots also love Slater as a leader and a teammate. There’s no doubt he will be sticking around for another season.

Injured Receivers

Maurice Harris was waved to be placed on IR on Sunday, August 25th, but if he goes unclaimed, then he will remain with the Patriots, but not count against the roster. He impressed early in camp and preseason, often finding himself catching passes from Brady on the first-team. 

Cameron Meredith was scooped up in free agency by the Patriots. Meredith has been injured all off-season and has been stuck on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. He is a talented receiver with the upside to breakout with Brady as his quarterback. He’s more than likely staying on the PUP list when the season starts and won’t be eligible for return until week 6. He won’t count against the roster until activated off PUP. 

Who Gets Cut?

Demaryius Thomas 

Thomas is a 31-year-old receiver turning 32 this season. He is coming off of his worst statistical season since his sophomore year in the NFL. Not to mention, he just started practising for the first time since he tore his Achilles last regular season. I’ve already talked about why I believe he will get cut (click here to read that) and I’m sticking with my gut feeling here too. 

Ryan Davis

The 22-year-old receiver out of Auburn went undrafted this past draft. The Patriots signed him as an undrafted free agent, as he was rookie quarterback Jarrett Stidham’s teammate in college. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t hold any special team value and hasn’t been very impressive at camp. There’s a chance he can be placed on the practice squad, but it’s likely they go with more deserving players in other position groups. 

Damoun Patterson

Patterson is a 24-year-old receiver who went undrafted and signed by the Steelers the last off-season. This year, now with the Patriots, he is a longshot to make the roster. Though he is eligible for the practice squad, I find it unlikely he makes that. He was very unimpressive in camp and hasn’t done much of anything at preseason. I feel as though Davis is more deserving of a practice squad spot than Patterson and even he didn’t make my cut for it.

Practice Squad Receiver

Gunner Olszewski went undrafted out of Bemidji State as a cornerback. For those that don’t know, Bemidji State is a Division II college football team. The likelihood of a D-II player to make the NFL are not impossible, but it’s very slim. What Olszewski has done already establishes a fun underdog story. Patriots beat reporter, Doug Kyed, has especially been high on Olszewski through training camp and preseason.

In the third week of the preseason, with Berrios out with an injury, Olszewski took the rains as a punt returner. Boy, did he ever take advantage of his opportunity. He looked excellent, showing off good footwork and vision as he ran around traffic. He even ran over the Panthers punter, Michael Palardy, on one return. The one down-side is he doesn’t have the Patriots advanced system under wraps. He also isn’t exactly the most polished receiver, as he did come out of college as a cornerback. But his apparent special teams’ ability does give him enough value for the Patriots to hold onto him. 

Patriots Tight Ends (2)

Matt LaCosse, Ryan Izzo

LaCosse was signed by the Patriots on the first day of free agency. He was quick to establish himself as the top tight end in a weak group. He looked strong as both a receiver and a blocker in camp and preseason. But in the very first week of preseason play, LaCosse went down with what seemed like a somewhat serious injury. There’s still no true way of knowing if he will be ready to start the season healthy. But, for the sake of this article, let’s say he will be. He has the chance to be the starting tight end for at least the first four weeks of the season. 

Izzo was selected by the Patriots in the seventh round, 250th overall, in last year’s draft. He showed last preseason that he can excel as a blocker, but didn’t show all too much catching the ball. With that, he was placed on the practice squad for the entirety of the season.

This year, he started off similar to last season. With LaCosse and Ben Watson joining the roster, the odds of him making it with the way he was performing wasn’t ideal. He needed to step up. That began to happen after week 1 and before week 2 of the preseason. He started to look better blocking and catching passes with LaCosse injured. He started getting more reps because, again, LaCosse was injured. Then, in week 3 of the preseason, he showed a connection with Brady, making a catch over the middle of the field for a big gain. I feel as though he has some upside in his receiving abilities and real high upside as a blocking tight end. Ultimately, he is a Martellus Bennett/Dwayne Allen type of tight end. 

Patriots Starting Tight End Not Starting? 

Ben Watson did not appear as a tight end making the roster, as my earlier paragraph suggests. That is right, from a technical standpoint. He won’t start on the team for the first four weeks due to suspension. Rules suggest that while he is on the Patriots roster, he doesn’t count against the roster number. That means that, through four weeks, Ben Watson will not actually be on the 53-man roster. Don’t worry Patriots fans, he will almost assuredly play once he is eligible to return from suspension. I thought ahead on that too. Once he is able to return for week 5, I feel as though Matt LaCosse could be the one leaving. If not LaCosse, then either Braxton Berrios or Duke Dawson will be the odd-man-out. 

Who Gets Cut?

Stephen Anderson, Lance Kendricks and the newest addition to the tight end position group, Eric Saubert, should get released. Anderson was brought in mid-way through last season by the Patriots but was never really utilized at all. When LaCosse was brought on board, it appeared to me as though those two would battle for the back-up role behind Watson. LaCosse won that job with ease and it’s easy to see why Anderson should get cut.  

Lance Kendricks was brought in but was always viewed as a guy on the outside looking in. With his recent suspension for one week, he seemingly lost the job for himself. He legitimately made it easier for Belichick to call him in for his release. 

Eric Saubert was brought in via trade while camp was under-way. He was brought in for “undisclosed draft considerations” upon the release of quarterback Danny Etling. Saubert has played in 30 career NFL games with the Falcons since being drafted in the fifth round in 2017. In that time, he started just one game. Over the past two seasons, he has recorded just 5 catches on 9 targets for 48 yards. He doesn’t exactly have much experience and never has had a big role. The Patriots didn’t give up really anything to bring him in either, meaning it isn’t too difficult to release him. He hasn’t shown much in his short time with the team either. 

In Conclusion

Looking at just the offensive skill positions, I have locked in 17 players for the 53-man roster. I have also added 3 players to the 10-man practice squad and one player to the International Pathway spot. There were two players who were injured and won’t count against the initial roster along with one player who is suspended to start and won’t count against the roster. In the process of finding all those players, I released 8 guys, some of them veterans. 

For my next piece, I will be looking at offensive and defensive linemen and predicting whether or not they will make the cut. Stay tuned!

All stats via NFL.com

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