AFC South: Each Team’s Path To A Division Title

Houston Texans

The Houston Texans 2018-2019 season started with the passing of the franchise’s owner Bob Mcnair on November 23, 2018. Coming off a 4-12 record this was a critical year for Bill O’Brien and the Texans.
The 2018-2019 season, unfortunately, started just like the previous year with loss after loss. Starting 0-3, it was hard to imagine they would finish 11-5 and division winners. The season ended however like so many others with a disappointing 21-7 playoff loss at home to the Indianapolis Colts.

The Offseason:

Coming into 2019-2020, the Texans were focused on improving two areas. The offensive line and the secondary. There were notable loses in the offseason starting with Tyrone Mathieu and Demaryius Thomas departing after one year. Former high draft pick Kevin Johnson was not resigned, and longtime cornerback Kareem Jackson was not brought back. The Texans were bottom five in passing yards allowed and gave up the most sacks in the NFL (62).

The Texans drafted Tytus Howard from Alabama State in the first round with the 23rd pick. Lonnie Johnson from Kentucky with the 22nd pick in the second round. In total, the Texans drafted two cornerbacks and two offensive linemen.

In free agency, the Texans had over 70 million in cap space and the hope was that the team would be improved through free agency. Offseason signings of Tashuan Gipson, Brandon Roby, AJ McCarron were good signings. The first time in years the Texans had depth at the cornerback position and a legitimate backup for Watson.

Texans reach agreement with free-agent safety Tashaun Gipson. With the Jaguars the last three years. Made the Pro Bowl (2014) with Cleveland.

Years of bargain bin shopping in free agency had the fan base saying “same old Texans” as they were not happy with the signings. The expectations were that a big free-agent signing or trade was needed.

46 million dollars in cap space and the free agency market all but dried up the next logical step was to extend their current players. Jadeveon Clowney wants a contract extension and is currently holding out. With the Clowney situation still up in the air, there was a big change still on the horizon. General Manager Brian Gaines who was hired in 2018 to take over for Rick Smith was let go in the middle of the offseason.

Key Players And Stars:

As we all know you can have great depth but if you don’t have stars you won’t win on a consistent basis.

Third-year year quarterback Deshaun Watson is a top 10 talent and with another year in the NFL can take that next step.

Deandre Hopkins is an elite level wide receiver who did not drop a single pass last year. Hopkins leads a talented (albeit injury prone) wide receiver core.

The defense is led by three-time defensive player of the year JJ Watt. With (more than likely) Jadaveon Clowney on the other side at the defensive end or linebacker spot, you have two dominant players on defense.

Training Camp Battles:

There aren’t a lot of positions up for grab for the Texans but there are some important ones. Two spots on the offensive line are already in place. Center Nick Martin and guard Zach Fulton are the only sure things on the offensive line. Tytus Howard is a first-round pick so unless he has a disastrous preseason, he will be at one tackle position. Seantrel Henderson, Matt Khalil, and Martinas Rankin round out the candidates for the remaining spots.

The tight end position is also in flux with Jordan Atkins, Jordan Thomas, Darren Fells, and rookie Kahale Warring all battling for playing time. Thomas is the logical choice. He is the better blocker and a legitimate red-zone threat.

Division Champs?

The Texans head into the season with a lot tougher strength of schedule and new faces in key positions. The AFC South is a two-team race between the Texans and Jags which may come down to the last couple of games. This could be a make or break season for Bill O’Brien considering the front office shakeup and past playoff loses.

With the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck and the pedestrian offense of the Jags, this is a prime spot for the Texans to win the division. They now possess the best QB, wide receiver and defensive player in the division which should add up to a 10-6 record and make the Texans the AFC South champions.

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By: Lachard Binkley (@HTOWN4LIFE40)

Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts are in a bit of a pickle. Andrew Luck retired right as it looked like the pieces were all falling together, making going 0.500 seem like a long shot let alone being the crown in one of the more unpredictable divisions in the game. Coach Frank Reich may still have a chance.

Division Turmoil:

The Titans have yet to have a full healthy season of Marcus Mariota and backup Ryan Tannehil hasn’t show he can be “the guy” either. The Jaguars have an amazing defense that has been squandered by a lack of offense, whether it is terrible QB play or star back Leonard Fournette getting into trouble. Nick Foles is their new QB and has a Super Bowl under his belt, but his play outside of Philly has been abysmal at best. The Texans have tried anchoring their offensive line with franchise LT in Jeremy Tunsil but got fleeced by basically giving away one of their best defenders in Jadaveon Clowney.

The Colts are carrying over most of their roster from last year that was a stark improvement from previous years and was only stopped by a juggernaut Kansas City team. They have also added Justin Houston to bolster their pass rush. The only clear downgrade is the QB position, which is a steep drop but may not be as bad it seems.

Offense:

QB Jacoby Brissett is the next man up. Brissett is a former backup in NE and got to start in 2017 while Luck was dealing with an injury. Through 15 starts, he completed 58.8% of his passes and threw for 13 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and was 22nd in the league with passing yards. Those stats don’t scream impressive, but you must look at how the team looks now versus 17.

They have an actual defense now, jumping from 30th in yards allowed to 11th. On top of that they have invested heavily in an offensive line, building one of the better units in the league. Brissett’s biggest weakness was holding on to the ball for far too long and taking a sack, well if Reich hasn’t wired that out of him by now that line will buy him more than enough time to make the hard decision of lobbing it to TY Hilton every play.

Conclusion:

The Colts have been fortunate in landing two back to back historic quarterbacks but squandered it away with poor roster management. They got rid of GM Ryan Grigson, but not before he ruined Andrew Luck. New GM Chris Ballard is not making the same mistake as his predecessor and is putting his unknown backup in the best position to crown himself a new star in the league.

By: Dylan Brattain (@dylan55441)

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been quite sporadic over the past two years. In the 2017 season, they walked away with as the ACF south champions. Last year they fell back to the bottom of the division while winning only five games and scoring a division low 245 points. Last season, the Jaguars struggled to close out close games going 2 – 6 in contests decided by one touchdown or less. After an offseason of changes, the Jaguars will look to climb back to the top of the division.

Offense:

The Jaguars will open the upcoming season with a new quarterback under center. They signed Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles this off-season to a four year $88 million contract. Foles will be tasked with bringing stability and leadership to a talented offense. He has shown the ability to carry a team to and through the postseason. He should be a breath of fresh air with his reliable play.

Leonard Fournette enters his third year fully healthy and ready to rumble through defenses on the ground. With Foles at quarterback, he also has an increased chance to become more involved in the passing game than in years past. Fournette trained hard all off-season and has dropped 20 pounds and looks faster and better conditioned in comparison to his first two professional seasons.

At the receiver position, the Jaguars brought-in a former teammate of Foles signing Chris Conley during free agency. Throughout the off-season, Foles and Conley have shown off good chemistry with each. They have routinely connected on passes at training camp and will look to carry that success into the season. Marquise Lee is healthy and should begin the season as Foles’ top receiver. Lee is an experienced and dangerous offensive weapon who should keep defenses honest. Dede Westbrook and DJ Chark round-out the receivers group. Both have been impressive in the off-season. Foles should have enough offensive firepower to stop defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage. Fournette should be a direct beneficiary of his new quarterback’s accuracy and weapons.

Defense:

The Jaguars have rested their laurels on their defensive play for several years. They are led by the best cornerback in the led in Jalen Ramsey. He has made two straight Pro Bowls and can wipe out a team’s top wide receiver. Opposite Ramsey is AJ Boyle, another corner capable of going one on one and locking down his side of the field. The duo forms one of the best tandems at cornerback in the NFL.

Joining the Jaguars’ top-flight pass defenders is 7th round draft pick, Josh Allen. During training camp and the preseason, Allen has drawn praise from coaches and teammates. He has been a consistent presence in the offensive backfield and should be a difficult pass rusher for offenses to handle. With lockdown cornerback play behind him, Allen should collect sacks at a high rate during his rookie year.

The Jaguars will be down one of their former Pro Bowlers after linebacker Telvin Smith decided to step away from the game this season. Replacing him is rookie Quincy Williams who brings speed and coverage abilities to the position.

At the defensive end position, the Jaguars have two of the best anchors in the league. Calais Campbell and Ngakoue can stop the run and collapse the pocket. Throw in Josh Allen and the three should combine to form an excellent group of pass rushers.

Conclusion:

Behind the leadership of Foles, a healthy Fournette, and one of the best defenses in the league, the Jaguars will reclaim the title of AFC South champions. They will play complimentary football by rolling out a run-first offense backed up by accurate shots downfield. Their defense will severely limit opposing teams passing attacks, send waves of pressure at quarterbacks, and limit yards on the ground. An easy path to follow to wins and a division crown.

By: Ben Davidowitz (@DavidowitzB)

Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans started off 2018 and ended the year as one of the hottest teams in the NFL; their only problem was middle of the season. The Titans finished last season winning four of the final five games bringing their record to 9-7 after starting 3-1. The only loss of that five-game stretch came in the Week 17, the most important game of the season. The Titans lost to Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts, 33-17 and lost possession of the No. 6 seed. Tennessee’s run was borderline improbable after reaching 5-6 at one point. Now Luck will be on his couch come January, but will the Titans be?

Offense:

Andrew Luck called it quits at 29-years-old leaving the Colts in the hands of ex-Patriot Jacoby Brissett. By default, Marcus Mariota is no longer the worst quarterback in the division. That gives the Titans a significant chance of splitting that series if not sweeping. Mariota had plenty of help on last year’s team as he enters what is his most important year on paper and the field. The former Heisman winner threw for 2,528 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in 14 games last season.

Derrick Henry bailed Mariota late in the year capping off his first 1,000-yard season finishing with 1,059 and 12 touchdowns. Henry rushed for 625 yards and 8 touchdowns on 97 carries (6.4ypc) in the final five games. Clearly Henry was on another level as he had 744 yards on 176 carries in 2018, making him a potential breakout candidate in 2019 and the centerpiece of the Titans’ offense.

The offense returns WR Corey Davis (65 REC, 891 YDS, 4 TDS ), injured TE Delaine Walker (4 REC, 52 YDS), RB Dion Lewis (917 TOT YDS, 2 TDS) and added ex-Buccaneers WR Adam Humphries (76 REC, 816 YDS, 5 TDS) in the offseason. The Titans were 4-3 in games decided by 7 points or less in 2018 and establishing the running game proved the difference for the Titans late in the season in overcoming those loses. The rushing attack of Henry and Lewis will be the focal point in 2019 and lightening Mariota’s workload. The Titans finished 7th in rushing (126.4ypg) and 29th in passing (185.9) behind his career-low 53.1 QBR. Look for the former first-round pick and 24-year-old Corey Davis to have a career-year as the Titans’ No. 1 WR and Humphries to surpass his 105 targets in Tampa Bay.

Defense:

The defense remained solid all season giving the Titans a fighting chance in just about every game. They ranked 8th in yards allowed per game (333.4) and the third-lowest points allowed (18.9). Tennessee’s newly designed defense resulted in 39 sacks (T-16th) and 11 interceptions (T-23rd). The defense was led by Jurrell Casey (62 TKS, 7 SKS), Malcolm Butler (60 TKS, 3 INT), and the newly signed 70.5 million dollar man Kevin Byard (90 TKS, 4 INT). The Titans defense will be competing against Deshaun Watson, Nick Foles, and Brissett twice this season making the division more attainable than previously before.

Conclusion:

The Titans are into year two of a complete revamping of the coaching staff. Head Coach Mike Vrabel and Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees had successful campaigns as first-year coaches in Tennessee. While Matt LaFleur (OC) left Tennessee to become the Head Coach in Green Bay after his lone season. Vrabel replaced LaFleur with Arthur Smith. Smith been with the team since 2011 and most recently the tight ends coach from 2016-18. The franchise chose to build within and Smith must have a healthy relationship with Mariota to get the OC job. He will have to build on starting and finishing games consistently, but if the defense averages anything close to its 18.9 points per game, Mariota could lead the Titans to become the AFC South champions.

The Titans sit at +375 on DraftKings making the Titans profitable payout to win the AFC South trailing the favored Texans (+125) and Jaguars (+250). After missing the playoffs by one game, Tennessee is set at +240 to make the playoffs with a win total of 8.

By: Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)