Week 3 Projections: Trust the Sixth Sense

I come bearing good news. The model is ready! After a whopping sample size of two weeks, my messy excel sheets are locked and loaded for mass circulation and ridicule. I’ve dubbed my contraption The Sixth Sense Model, because I have a few personal modifiers that I throw in and adjust for on a weekly basis, sometimes on a player basis within weeks. These modifiers can range from home/road splits to weight of pregame meal to the gameday dilation of Adam Gase’s pupils. But I won’t bore you with the method or the madness, I’ll simply deliver the results of the most impressive number crunching this side of Alan Turing.

These results are not simply a list. Now, I love lists. They’re neat and tidy and help my loose association of thoughts stay on track. But lists aren’t weighted. Unless I use twelve different font sizes, I’ll be able to communicate that Saquon Barkley should be started over Latavius Murray, but I can’t communicate just how strongly I feel about that. In order to combat that, I’ve broken the rankings into tiers each time the projections tumble over a sheer cliff.

Our tiers:

1. Mjolnir – “Whoever carries these weapons into battle shall wield the power of Thor” or something – Anthony Hopkins
2. Aegis – Athena’s unbreakable shield brandishing the head of Medusa. Your opponent’s highest scorers will crash against these stalwarts and find no give.
3. Liberty Bell – Stands strong and noble in its watchtower. Feel free to ring it, but there’s a non-zero chance that crack spreads.
4. Motley Crew – Odds and ends. Filler and grout. If you must.

The first four tiers are as expected, a cascade of worsening players based on projections. As you peruse the ranks, you will notice that some of your players are missing. That’s because those players are special which isn’t necessarily a positive. There are three types of special players, and they are:

1. Cowboys – shooting from the hip, you may notch a killshot, or hit the whiskey barrel two blocks down the street
2. Mike’s Dad in Stranger Things – No matter how you spin it, these players are just boring. They’ll gather an average point total, but you’re going to keep forgetting they’re even in your lineup.
3. Loki – Nothing to see here but illusions and tricks. Don’t overthink it. Don’t start ’em unless you have to.

Two final things before we begin. First, all models, all projections, are wrong, but some are better. Secondly, you may not agree with my rankings, particularly my special tiers. I’m not playing fantasy football to finish 5th, I’m playing to win, which means I have to be willing to lose and lose big. This is the result. I encourage you all to join me.

And yes, the players are ranked within the tiers based on projections. If the opponent is bolded, its a home game. Injury concerns are denoted with *.

Don’t. Get. Cute.

Hope it helps.