Gambling Joe’s Saturday Sends

Last week: 4-3

NCAAF this season: 30-26

#9 Florida at South Carolina, 12pm

This is a pure momentum pick. The Gators are off a crushing loss, and the Gamecocks are off a thrilling OT win. The line has dipped below a touchdown and I love it. South Carolina has played a tough schedule this year, already playing Alabama. You know what I remember about that game? The Cocks getting off to a great start, having a big play at the end of the 2nd quarter, bringing them into halftime still in the game. Hilinski had come out and looked like the real deal, and I thought, huh, South Carolina might be legit. They went on to lose that game, and then got blown out by Missouri the next week. The inconsistency of this young team has been prevalent this year, and I don’t think they will sustain their high level of play. Kirby Smart is a terrible coach, and Hilinski barely topped 100 yards last week in that win.

The Gators looked great against LSU, tied late in the 3rd quarter, only to have LSU pull away. The Gators have a great defense, and the offense flexed its muscles last week. The offense is much better under Kyle Trask than it ever was under Felipe Franks. They lacked the big offensive weapons to beat LSU, but have enough to beat South Carolina. Hilinski has taken a beating this season, and comes into this game hurt. Gators feast.

Pick: Florida -5.5

Iowa State at Texas Tech, 12pm

Texas Tech had a tough start this season, with a disappointing loss to Arizona. But they have started to round into gear. They shocked many people, including me, when they dominated Oklahoma State at home a couple weeks ago. Jett Duffey balled out, throwing for 4 TDs, and the defense picked off Sanders 3 times. I know Hubbard ran all over them, but that is exactly what Heisman caliber RBs do to teams. The Red Raiders traveled to Waco and took the undefeated Baylor Bears to 2OT last week, before falling. They were 10 point dogs, and I was impressed with how well they traveled.

They now return home to play Iowa State, who has disappointed this year, going to OT with Northern Iowa, and dropping close games to Baylor and Iowa. The Cyclones are playing their 2nd straight road game, going from Morgantown to Lubbock. There has not been 1 team in college football this year that has played back to back road games and won them both. Every team that has won their first road game has lost the second one. The Cyclones went into halftime tied with WVU after early offensive struggles, but picked it up to blow out the Mountaineers. Now they have to go on the road again and play against a QB that has thrown for almost 800 yards in his last 2 games. That’s a tall task for the 62nd ranked pass defense in the country. The Red Raiders freshmen running back is averaging over 5 yards a carry, and I think Tech is ready to get a marquee win. I love this line.

Pick: Texas Tech +7

NC State at Boston College, 12pm

NC State sucks. I’m going to just get that out there. They got crushed by West Virginia in a shocking loss at the start of the season, and battled to a close win in an ugly game against Syracuse last Thursday. This will be different. They will be playing a bad Boston College team that has no defense and a backup QB. BC’s normally stout defense has been gashed all year, most notably by Kansas for 48 points. Keep in mind that Kansas also fired their offensive coordinator a few weeks later, and they still ran it up on BC. BC starting QB Anthony Brown had season ending surgery this past week, so former walkon Dennis Grosel will make his first start. This was not exactly the plan for BC, who lost their backup QB EJ Perry to transfer this past offseason. Perry played at QB when Brown was hurt last year, and now Grosel will do so this year.

You would think that would mean BC will just ground and pound with superstar RB AJ Dillon on Saturday, but it won’t be that easy. NC State has one of the top rush defenses in the country, giving up the 5th fewest yards per game in the nation. BC is going to have a lot of trouble moving the football, and probably have a couple bad turnovers that will set up the Wolfpack in great field position. Also, keep in mind that this is a long week for NC State, who hasn’t played since last Thursday. Things will get ugly in Chestnut Hill Saturday.

Pick: NC State -3

NC State at Boston College, 12pm (part 2)

On top of what I just said above, let me rag on NC State for a minute. The Wolfpack have been miserable on offense, ranking 10th in the ACC in points per game. The offense was hot garbage against Cuse last week, and they have QB problems. The Pack have been juggling between 2 QBs in recent weeks, and Head Coach Dave Doeren said both players will see action. If you have 2 QBs, you have none. I know the BC defense has been Swiss cheese this year, but Steve Adazio is a defensive minded head coach, and they had a bye to prepare for this game. Syracuse’s defense ranks 8th in the conference, and NC State only scored 16. These 2 teams are terrible. Points will be hard to come by. I’m double dipping.

Pick: Under 51.5

#2 LSU at Mississippi State, 3:30pm

Speaking of hot garbage, let’s talk about Mississippi State. Well, pardon my French, but this team is terrible. The Bulldogs limp home with their tail between their legs after losing to the dreadful Tennessee Volunteers last week. The Bulldogs have yet to look like the defensive juggernaut people expected to see this season. They only have wins over LA Lafayette, Southern Miss and Kentucky. And now they have to play the hottest team in the country, LSU. Good lord. Joe Burrow and that LSU offense made one of the best defenses in college football, Florida, look like a high school team last Saturday. Just how good was LSU? They only faced four 3rd downs all game. Four. FOUR! Florida had not given up more than 21 points all year, until LSU hung 42 last week. Auburn’s pathetic offense dropped a 50 burger on Mississippi State a couple weeks ago. And now LSU is going to walk in and emasculate the cowbell. Thoughts and prayers for Mississippi State.

Pick: LSU -18

#16 Michigan at #7 Penn State, 7:30pm

Michigan’s trash offense, led by Shea Patterson, will march into Death Valley for a Saturday night white out against the #7 team in the country. If you like classic Big 10, ugly, defensive slug-fests, then congratulations, this is your day. If you watched the Iowa/Penn State game last week, you know what I’m talking about. Low scoring, lots of punts, and awkward numbers on the scoreboard. Michigan squeaked by Iowa 10-3 a couple a weeks ago, and Penn State did the same, winning 17-12. Poor Shea Patterson is in for a world of trouble. He has yet to eclipse 300 yards passing this year, and only threw for 194 yards last week against Illinois (terrible) in a game where they scored 42 points. How is that even possible? Penn State is the 2nd ranked scoring defense in the country, giving up 8 ppg this season. Poor sweet Shea Patterson. He is going to get killed by the Nittany Lions, and then crushed by the press after this game. Coach Harbaugh has not developed the senior at all since he’s been at Michigan, and that was on display against Wisconsin. Now it will be on display during prime time on ABC.

Penn State’s offense isn’t exactly the most electric thing out their either. They have played 2 real teams this year: Pitt and Iowa. In each game, Penn State only scored 17 points. Michigan is an elite defense as well, ranking 15th in points allowed this season. Take out that Wisconsin game, and they fly into the top 5. This is going to be classic Big 10, low scoring football game. James Franklin has a great team, but the offense is still a step behind teams like Ohio State. Sean Clifford was clearly the less talented QB on the field against Iowa, and he didn’t do much to move the ball through the air, only throwing for 117 yards. This game is going to be something, but high scoring is not one of them.

Pick: Under 46.5

Air Force at Hawaii, 11pm

No one comes to the Big Island and wins. It is a fact that Hawaii is one of the best home teams in the country, because of the distinct geographical advantage of being really far from everyone else. Hawaii is 3-0 at home this season, with wins over Arizona and Oregon State. The always dynamic Rainbow Warrior offense has been on display to start the year, as they have been averaging 37 points a game. If Air Force is going to win this game, they have to get out of the gate faster than they did last week. They dug themselves into an early hole against Fresno State, before dominating in the 2nd half to win. Air Force was home, which is also a tough place to play because of altitude. Fresno State faded after half time, getting shut out in the 2nd half.

This will be a clash of contrasting offenses, as Air Force has a dominant run game, while Hawaii has one of the best passing attacks in the country. Air Force pounds the rock with their unique triple option, trailing only Navy in yards per game. They have a decent defense that may be able to slow Hawaii down, but only rank 55th in yards per play allowed. Cole McDonald has been racking up the stats this year for Hawaii, averaging over 300 yards a game, with 20 TDs this season. He loves throwing to stud wideout Cedric Byrd, who leads the Mountain West in receiving, with 46 receptions and 9 TDs. Hawaii is a wagon at homes, and Air Force has struggled on the road this season, going 1-3. Air Force was lucky to rally and beat a disappointing Fresno State team last week. I think their luck will run out late Saturday night.

Pick: Hawaii +3

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