NFL Week 7 Picks: Bills are Back and Texans Lock of the Week

OVERALL: 24-19-1 ATS, 25-19 SU
LAST WEEK ATS: 9-5
LAST WEEK SU: 6-8

What a wild year it’s been already and may it continue. Let’s start the week off with Thursday Night Football in the Mile High City with two teams trending in opposite directions.

Thursday Night Football
Thursday, Oct. 17 (8:25 p.m. ET) Chiefs (-3) at Broncos

The road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings and Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five in Denver. Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. All signs point to the Kansas City, but they’ve lost two-straight while Denver has won two-straight.  KC lost to the Colts and Texans while the Broncos beat the Chargers and Titans. Division game and road game for Kansas City makes me want to go Denver to cover. I can’t see Mahomes with Tyreek Hill back not covering and beating Flacco and the Broncos by at least a touchdown.

Pick: Chiefs -3

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 17

Sunday, Oct. 20 (1:00 p.m. ET games)         

Rams (-3) at Falcons

What a crazy season for these two teams. I can’t ride with Atlanta anymore after their loss to Arizona. I have been terrible picking the Falcons this year and even at home, versus a struggling Rams team, I can’t do it. Oh yea, Jalen Ramsey versus Julio Jones in his Rams debut. Hello, headlines.

Pick: Rams -3

Prediction: Rams 24, Falcons 20                             

Dolphins at Bills (-17)

So close. So freaking close. Why that play for two? A fade? A shovel? An RPO? Anything else! I hope Miami goes 0-16 now. I really thought Miami would win last week but at least they covered. Bills off a bye week should whoop the Dolphins, but 17 are a lot of points in a division matchup.

Pick: Dolphins +17

Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 13

Jaguars (-3.5) at Bengals

Not much to really say on the game besides Jalen Ramsey was just traded and he would have been guarding Tyler Boyd or Auden Tate this week. The Jags won’t have to worry about much this week and I think the defense will play inspired now that he’s gone. Minshew mania should be back after two-straight losses.

Pick: Jags -3.5

Prediction: Jaguars 20, Bengals 13

Raiders at Packers (-5.5)

Green Bay escapes again! How does Aaron Rodgers do it? Seriously when will teams stop giving him the ball back with time on the clock? Jon Gruden knows he can’t, but probably will. Raiders 0-4 ATS in the last 4 while the favorite is 4-0 in the last four matchups. Raiders are off a bye and Green Bay has one less day of practice with the Monday Night game. Close game, but the Pack is back.

Pick: Packers -5.5

Prediction: Packers 31, Raiders 20

49ers (-9.5) at Redskins

The 49ers defense has been unreal this season, one of the most dominant in 30-years. The Redskins offense has started fast and cooled off in nearly every game. I don’t think they’ll even get it going this week. 49ers are rolling and are a top-five team behind Gucci Garoppolo. Expect the 49ers to be the only undefeated team left after this week…in the NFC. 

Pick: 49ers -9.5

Prediction: 49ers 34, Redskins 10

Cardinals at Giants (-3)

What a game this will be. Seriously! I expect a lot of points and the two rookie quarterbacks to air it out and get some highlight runs in. Who cares who wins, both want to compete but have a high draft pick. A winnable game for either team but comes down to Arizona being 5-1 ATS in last 6 in New York while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Pick: Cardinals +3

Prediction: Giants 33, Cardinals 31

Vikings (-1) at Lions

Division matchup, Minnesota looks back on track and balanced while Detroit is hanging their heads after the controversial loss to Green Bay. This is going to be a close game and Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Detroit. The favorite is 4-1 in the last five while the road team
is 5-2 ATS. Detroit has to win sometime but next week versus the Giants seems more appropriate.

Pick: Vikings -1

Prediction: Vikings 23, Lions 21

Texans at Colts (-1)

The two trends in this series that stands out is the under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Indianapolis and the road team is 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Houston has had trouble as of late going 1-4 ATS versus Indianapolis but Andrew Luck isn’t quarterback. Houston is on a high and I think Deshaun Watson’s MVP campaign keeps rolling, but the Colts have had two weeks to plan for this game. Expect it to be close, but much like the Jaguars being favored over the Saints last week, doesn’t make sense why Houston is the underdog. 

Pick: Texans +1

Prediction: Texans 24, Colts 20

Sunday, Oct. 14 (4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET games)

Chargers at Titans (-2)

Oh my god, it’s happening! Mariota is on his way out soon. Cam Newton, anyone? The Chargers lost to the Steelers at home or was it home? Playing a road game is going to be good for the Chargers this week and the Titans have to figure out a lot out. The Chargers are 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings while going 3-0-1 in the last four in Tennessee.

Pick: Chargers +2

Prediction: Chargers 20, Titans 9

Ravens at Seahawks (-3.5)

Two amazingly mobile quarterbacks that improvise on the go; what a treat this could be. Possibly the most intriguing game on the slate, or what a trick it could be. Seahawks are clearly the better team, but Baltimore traded for Marcus Peters to make one the best corner duos in the league with Marlon Humphrey. Ravens want the win but are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the home team going 3-1-1 in the last five. Wilson is an MVP and hasn’t thrown an interception yet. I say this game is his first.

Pick: Seahawks -3.5

Prediction: Seahawks 26, Ravens 21

Saints at Bears (-3.5)

The Saints could not have asked for Teddy Bridgewater to put this team in a better position to be the number one or two seed come January. This will be another tough test after putting up 13 at Jacksonville. The Saints are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings and the under has hit I four-straight. I expect both of those trends to continue.

Pick: Saints +3.5

Prediction: Saints 19, Bears 17

Sunday Night Football
Sunday, Oct. 20 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Eagles at Cowboys (-3)

The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven and the road team is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings. This is the toughest game to judge and Eagles coach Doug Pederson already came out and said they were going to Dallas and winning after their 38-20 loss at Minnesota. Amari Cooper may be out for the game and that really limits the Cowboys offense. The refs didn’t help the Cowboys in the loss to the Jets until the last drive, sort of, but the Eagles have their own penalty problems. The bottom line is without Cooper I like Philadelphia, but with him, Dallas. Close game either way. Let’s assume Cooper plays.

Pick: Cowboys -3

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 23

Monday Night Football
Monday, Oct. 21 (8:15 p.m. ET)
Patriots (-4.5) at Jets

Sam Darnold, the Jets savior is back! Monday Night in New Jersey where the Patriots are 1-5 ATS. The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings so the feeling is towards the Jets. I’m not crazy, the Patriots will win, but Bell could have a breakout game and that defense can keep it single digits.

Pick: Jets +10

Prediction: Patriots 30, Jets 23