Are the New England Patriots the Greatest Fantasy Defense Ever?

The Stats

Let’s start with the numbers. Following their week seven Monday night dominance of the New York Jets, the Patriots defense has recorded 18 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles, 26 sacks, 2 blocked kicks, forced 1 safety and scored 5 touchdowns. Meanwhile they’ve only allowed 3 offensive touchdowns and 30 points to opposing offenses. So far the Patriots defense has allowed the second fewest passing yards, the third fewest pass completions and rushing yards as well as the fewest points and yards per play. They also have forced the second most sacks, defended the most passes and scored the most defensive touchdowns. The Patriots defense is within the top two in fantasy points allowed to all positions. It’s also worth noting that the teams placing ahead of the Patriots in most of these categories have only played six games instead of the seven New England has played.  

For Comparison

It’s easy to see how the New England Patriots defense is in the top 12 fantasy scorers overall. How does it stack up to the top defenses of previous years? Per Fantasy Pros, the Patriots D/ST has scored 160 fantasy point on the year and averaged 22.9 points per game. Since 2012, as far as Fantasy Pros tracks, no defense has scored or averaged more fantasy points through 7 weeks. The closest team was the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs defense, which only scored 135 points averaging 19.3 points per game through 7 games. The 160 fantasy points from the Patriots defense would be enough points to finish no worse than the eighth D/ST in any full year. The Patriots D/ST is currently 71 points from becoming the top scoring defense since 2012. At their current pace they will achieve that in 4 more games. Overall, they are on pace to score 366 fantasy points, which would have finished as the fifth best fantasy score of 2018.

Is This Sustainable?

There is no doubt that those stats are incredible and the fantasy production is unbelievable, but what are the chances that New England is actually able to maintain this level of performance. Over the first 7 weeks of football New England has played primarily easy matchups. Outside of Week one against Pittsburgh, not one the other six teams New England have played rank higher than six in Fantasy Pros ease of matchup ratings. That’s six games against teams that are currently considered the easiest matchup for a fantasy defense. Those teams have combined for a record of 11-27. It’s putting it lightly to say the Patriots have had an easy schedule.

So, how does the rest of the season look for the New England Patriots defense? Excluding week 17, because your fantasy season should be over by then, New England has just three games remaining against top eight matchups. New England also plays three games against teams ranked in the top eight of worst matchups for defenses. This includes a brutal stretch where New England won’t face a team ranked lower than 17.  Those games are against Lamar Jackson, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, and (hopefully) Patrick Mahomes. That’s five of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks on the year. To this point, the best fantasy quarterback they have played against was Josh Allen, who currently sits at 19. The competition will not be the same through the rest of the season.

How will it end?

This is enough to say that the New England Patriots defense will not have the same success throughout the rest of the season. They may remain startable, but you can’t count on them to average 22.9 points per game. Now is the best possible chance to sell this defense. You may be able bolster your team with a great player and still find a defense in free agency. New England will not sustain the same level against their upcoming opponents. New England will still finish as the top fantasy defense but will not finish in the top 25 of fantasy scorers overall.  

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