Marcell Ozuna: Top-Tier Free Agent?

Batting

Grade : B+

The 2019 season has been arguably the best offensive year outfielder Marcell Ozuna has put together since coming to the Cardinals. During his 2018 season in St. Louis, he hit to a .280 batting average with 23 homeruns and 88 RBI – a far cry from hitting .312 with 37 home runs and 124 RBI in the previous year for the Miami Marlins. Despite the major difference, Ozuna improved in his counting stats with 29 home runs and 89 RBI in 2019 while missing 32 games. The second dip in his batting average may indicate a down year. However, one could also argue that he had more RBIs and homeruns despite being out 18 more games compared to 2018.

Batting averages homeruns and RBI do not always show the entire story of what Ozuna’s bat meant to lineup, though. Multiple times this season he was successful in a number of at-bats in important situations. There’s more than a possibility that the Cardinals would have missed the post season without Ozuna’s bat in the lineup.

Baserunning

Grade : B

During the season, Marcell Ozuna recorded a career-high 12 steals. Multiple times this year Ozuna’s base running seemed to be one of his bright spots – despite injuring his finger while diving to a base. He was a threat to steal from the fourth spot in the lineup. But the downside to his baserunning came in the form of double plays hit into. He managed to hit into 21 double plays – a career-high thus far. With him having a career high in both steals and double plays makes his base running quite the double edged sword.

Defense

Grade : C

The only reason Ozuna’s defense is not rated lower is because of his ability to throw baserunners out. Speed seems to be where Ozuna declined this year, and it affected him in the outfield. There were times throughout the season when he didn’t get the best jumps on a deep fly ball, or misread it altogether. In the National League Championship Series against the Washington Nationals, Ozuna missed multiple defensive plays; the most memorable being the routine fly ball off the bat of Anthony Rendon that Ozuna played incorrectly. If it wasn’t for Ozuna’s outstanding arm his defense would be an entire grade lower.

Another way one could see his defensive decline is by looking at his other numbers. Ozuna’s putouts (181) declined, which have gone decreased in each of the last three years (305 in 2017). This could be attributed to the injuries and missing games, however. Despite winning a Gold Glove just two seasons ago, he has also seen his defensive wins above replacement (dWAR) fall to -0.4. Also, the 2019 season Ozuna posted the worst fielding percentage of his career. It raises the question: should he head to the American League to be designated hitter?

Possible Replacements

Another interesting discussion between Ozuna and the Cardinals comes when figuring out who the team could replace him with. This past year, the Cardinals called up Randy Arozarena, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, and Tommy Edman. Despite Edman’s natural position being third base, all three rookies found time in the outfield. Harrison Bader was also a consistently-great defensive player. Bader’s downside is his offense, however, as he only mustered a .205 batting average. With the Cardinals having Jose Martinez, Dexter Fowler as well the aforementioned players, it raises a concern about playing time for everyone.

While discussing all seven players, we also cannot forget that prospect Dylan Carlson hasn’t even arrived from Triple-A Memphis. Carlson was having a great year in Springfield, hitting 21 home runs with 59 RBIs on a .281 batting average. The Cardinals organization had no choice to promote Carlson to the Memphis Redbirds. In only 18 games, he had 5 home runs with 9 RBI on an outstanding .361 batting average. Every single one of the 6 young players mentioned should see time in the Cardinals outfield in 2020, even if Edman becomes the full-time third basemen.

What’s His Worth?

The question that comes to mind when talking about Ozuna is: how much is he worth to an organization? The answer depends on what you expect to get out of him. Are you expecting him to be an everyday outfielder? Are you an American League team needing a DH that can play the outfield if injuries require him to? Rumors have surfaced that the Cardinals may extend a qualifying offer of 17.88 million for one year and that Ozuna prefers to stick around. If this raises concern to Cardinal fans, it shouldn’t. This offer is not an overpay for a season of production for the Cardinal organization. Instead, the move would simply ensure that if another team has an interest in Ozuna, the Cardinals would receive a compensatory pick should he pick another destination.

The Verdict

The Cardinals should not offer a contract other than the qualifying offer. Ozuna’s defense has been in steep decline. With the DH-rule remaining only in the AL, the Cardinals do not seem like the best fit. According to a Dominican sports journalist, Ozuna already has a line of suitors. The Chicago White Sox are a team that has the ability to sign Ozuna and offer him the ability to be a designated hitter. The Marlins and Mariners have also expressed interest in signing him, though the Marlins would not be able to use him as one. However, signs point to Marcell Ozuna being a St. Louis Cardinal for at least one more year.