Wolf’s Wagers: NBA Tuesday Betting Guide for October 29

Hawks @ Heat (-8)

Hawks: In his third pro game, DeAndre Hunter flashed the talent that led the Hawks to trade up for him in the 2019 draft. Hunter put up 14 points and 9 boards, but that wasn’t enough to secure a home win against the 76ers. Expect Hunter to continue his development, and look for the OVER on his total rebounds prop. John Collins will need to take another step forward this season for the 2-1 Hawks to make it back to the Eastern Conference playoffs. Jabari Parker backs up Collins, and has been a pleasant surprise for Atlanta. Parker has scored in double digits for two of the Hawks’ first three games. Star second-year guard Trae Young has been explosive so far in 2019, averaging 34 points per game to start the year. Atlanta will be playing in the second half of a back-to-back after traveling to Miami from Atlanta overnight. 

Heat: The 2-1 Heat have a solid balance between veterans and youth. The team expects to have Jimmy Butler available for his debut against Atlanta. Big men Bam Adebayo and Duncan Robinson have shown promise, with veteran center Kelly Olynyk serving as a sniper off the bench. Goran Dragic is a steady presence at guard, and has topped 17 points in his last six games against Atlanta. Preseason standout Kendrick Nunn started the season hot, while fellow rookie Tyler Herro is still finding his footing. The versatile Justise Winslow has averaged 19/9/6 in his first three games. While Miami struggled at home last season, they should be able to rebound enough to defeat Atlanta. Miami’s bench and ability to force turnovers gives them an edge, but -8 is too high to bet confidently.

Look to take the Heat at a live line around -3.5 if they go down early. Also consider taking DeAndre Hunter’s OVER for his rebound prop.

Mavericks @ Nuggets (-5)

Mavericks: The 2-1 Mavs hope that their shooters finally start connecting on some deep shots in Denver. Tim Hardaway and Justin Jackson are each shooting below 17% from three this season. Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson are solid role players who will help the Mavs keep it close in Denver, but the team has been led by their star international duo of Porzingis and Doncic. While the lanky Porzingis sometimes struggles as a rebounder, his size will challenge Jokic and Plumlee at the rim. Doncic is averaging 29/10/7 on the young season. 

Nuggets: Denver’s Nikola Jokic is a legitimate MVP candidate, but he can struggle against good post defenders. Sacramento’s Richuan Holmes accumulated 24/13 off the bench against the Nuggets on Monday night while holding Jokic to 9 points, and the 7’3” Porzingis awaits. Denver always has a great home court advantage, but the Nuggets’ overnight travel will allow Dallas to overcome the altitude . Jamal Murray and a 3-0 Nuggets team coming off a back-to-back will struggle to contain Dallas’s duo.

Expect Dallas to keep the game close on the road. The Mavs have value at +5, but I’ll be looking to live bet them at +7 or higher.

Grizzlies @ Lakers

Grizzlies: Ja Morant is validating his prestigious draft position early in 2019, with 30 points and 9 assists in Memphis’s overtime win over the Nets. The rookie made a clutch defensive play on Kyrie Irving to deny him the game winner. Morant also set up Jae Crowder for his game winning bucket. Fellow rookie Brandon Clarke has made an impact off the bench. Clarke, a former Gonzaga standout who won this year’s Summer League MVP, is averaging 10.7 points and 6.3 rebounds with 1.7 blocks per game. The 1-2 Grizzlies have been getting impressive production at center out of Jonas Valenciunas, who put up 16 points and 11 rebounds against Brooklyn. Greyson Allen has the potential to break out as a scoring bench guard in his second season. Memphis performed well against the Lakers last season, winning two of their three matchups.

Lakers: After an opening night loss to their cross-town rivals, the Lakers won 2 straight home games to reach 2-1. LeBron James is having a typical MVP-calber stat line, averaging 23/7/10. Veteran centers JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard will struggle to contain Memphis on the boards. LA also lacks the depth to pull away from the Grizzlies. Troy Daniels and Jared Dudley have struggled off the bench, while Quinn Cook, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Avery Bradley are each shooting only 25% from three. After massive roster changes this offseason, the Lakers will take time to adjust before they round into mid-season form.

The Grizzlies at +12 are my best bet of this NBA Tuesday. I expect them to keep it close against the Lakers, who lack depth and consistent shooters outside of Danny Green.

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