Razorbacks Drop Third Straight SEC Game

Weird Game

Fouls were expected. However, the sheer magnitude of fouls called on both teams was not. There will be no ref blaming here because both teams were whistled repeatedly with no clear preference from the refs. The problem was not bias refs, it was trigger happy refs. Arkansas came into the game averaging just roughly 18.5 fouls per game, while getting fouled an average of 19.5 times per game. That’s a combined average of 38 fouls per contest. Reasonable.

The refs blew their whistles 57 times in this game, 40 of them coming in the second half. Obviously not all of these were bad calls, though some may have been, but the sheer volume of fouls disrupted the flow of the game. Neither team could get into a rhythm throughout the second half. Three players fouled out. Seven finished the game one four fouls. I jokingly tweeted at one point that we could see 40 free throw attempts in this game. I never imagined that would actually be true. Hogs attempted exactly 40 FTs on the night.

Razorbacks Get One Last Chance

Despite the extreme amount of whistles in this game, the Hogs gave themselves a chance to win. They turned the ball over too much, missed too many FTs, and committed too many fouls (kind of), but still found themselves down 79-77 with :26 on the clock and the ball in their hands. A broken inbounds play saw a smothered Mason Jones, a drive from Desi Sills cut short, and an Isaiah Joe desperation three clang off the front of the rim as time expired. Mason Jones was phenomenal as has come to be the expectation. He finished with 34 points in 34 minutes, including converting on 15 of his 16 trips to the FT line. Isaiah Joe came off the bench tonight in his first game back from injury and provided some much needed sparks. He hit five shots on 36% shooting from 3PT range and finished with 16 points.

Telltale Stats

Through the Razorback’s first four losses of the season, there were a few telltale stats that were consistently different between wins and losses. Obviously, losing always comes with worse stats, but the following are a select few that we have chosen to keep an eye on. They may prove to be true “keys to success” if the trends continue the way they have thus far.

Three Point Percentage

The Hogs shoot nearly 33% from deep in wins, which is
roughly 4 percentage points better than their 29% mark in losses. Against SC,
the Hogs shot only 27% from distance. Even shooting at their usual rate during
losses would have provided the Hogs with three extra points, enough to change
the final outcome.

Rebound Margin

The biggest thorn in the side of Eric Musselman’s Hogs has
been size. More specifically, the lack of size when it comes to rebounding.
Through four losses, the Hogs have averaged being outrebounded by 18. Against
SC however, the team showed tremendous improvement across the board. Though
they were still outrebounded by three, the Hogs actually won the offensive
rebound battle for only the fourth time all season. The contributions in this
stat category are likely a big reason the Hogs had any chance at all late.

Free Throws

Typically I talk about free throw attempts in this section. Through four losses, three times has the margin of FTAs been greater than the margin of victory. This means the Razorbacks have lost by no more than seven points all season, and three times they’ve attempted at least eight LESS free throws than their opponent. Attempts was not the issue against SC though. Makes was the problem. The Hogs shot 40 free throws to the Gamecocks’ 33. The problem came in the team’s atrocious 65% FT shooting. On the season the team averages 73.3% from the line, including 74.1% in wins and 72.2% in losses. Had the Hogs hit FTs at their “losing” rate of 72.2%, they would have made 29 instead of 26. This, yet again, could have been the difference in the ball game.

Razorbacks Road Ahead

After dropping three conference games in as many tries, the
Hogs will travel to Tuscaloosa to take on a solid Alabama squad. The Tide have
taken Florida to two overtimes, lost to Kentucky by single digit, and handed
at-the-time #4 Auburn their first loss of the season. Their record might show
less wins than the Hogs’, but make no mistake that they will likely be favored
to win this game at home. They play a gritty brand of basketball. If their physicality
is anything like LSU’s, it could likely give us fits just like the Tigers did.
One positive note: their leading rebounder is a 6’5 guard, much like Arkansas
with Mason Jones. This does not mean rebounding will be easy as the averages
are well distributed across the team. It simply mean they don’t have the same
dominant big type of player that the Hogs have faced a few times this season.

Up Next

Alabama – 12-8 (4-3)

17 Auburn – 18-2 (5-2)

Missouri – 10-10 (2-5)

Tennessee – 12-8 (4-3)

Mississippi State – 13-7 (4-3)

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