UFC 249: Ferguson vs Gaethje: Prelims Preview

UFC 249 Prelims

Due to COVID-19, this event has already been cancelled twice, so some may still be somewhat skeptical as to whether the card does indeed go ahead. But, with the US government naming UFC an “essential business”, there seems to be a lot more optimism surrounding the rescheduled card.  This is a massive opportunity for both the UFC and the fighters on the card to gain worldwide exposure, as the UFC will host their second live event since quarantine began.

Dana White, UFC President – who has lofty financial targets over his head from ESPN for 2020 – has pledged to put on action-packed card one after another. This should mean we should have a lot to look forward to, starting with the stacked “prelims” featuring countless UFC veterans such as Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, Jacare Souza and former UFC Champions, Fabricio Verdum and Carla Esparza. 

I will be covering the entire prelims, apart from Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis which will be covered separately. 

Aleksei Oleinik vs Fabricio Werdum

On the second-last bout of the prelims, we have two of the most decorated grapplers in UFC history.  Oleinik (58-13-1) boasts an absurd 45 wins by submission and who can forget the guillotine that his opponent, Fabricio Werdum (23-7-1), snapped on Cain Velasquez to win the UFC Heavyweight Title back in 2015.  When this matchup was announced, the first thing that sprang to mind was a similar contest between Frank Mir and Big Nog (Antonio Nogeruira) and we all know how that one ended… if you don’t, be warned, the finish is not for the faint-hearted.  With this in mind, grappling fans will hope that this fight makes its way to the mat at some point in the contest.

As already stated, Oleinik is one of the most dangerous grapplers to compete inside the octagon.  At 42 years old, with 72 professional MMA fights spanning across 24 years, the 4^th-degree Jiu-Jitsu black belt has submission wins over the likes of Mirko Cro Cop, Travis Browne and Mark Hunt.  He is the only man in UFC history that has two Ezekial Choke finishes to his name and is coming off an active last 12 months, which includes a win over Maurice Greene in January 2020.  Oleinik is one of the last people you want to hit the mat with, but his striking leaves a lot to be desired. He will most likely do anything he can to bring the fight to the floor, where he is every bit as dangerous against someone of Werdum’s caliber. 

On the other side of the cage, we have another grappling master, the 2^nd degree BJJ black belt in Fabricio Werdum who held the UFC Heavyweight title (briefly) five years ago.  Werdum’s championship triumph seems like a lifetime ago though and since suffering that knockout to Stipe Miocic back in May of 2016 to lose his belt, he hasn’t looked the same.  Also 42, Werdum has only fought five times since losing his belt (including three fights in 2017 alone) and is coming off a KO loss to Alexander Volkov back in March 2018.  Werdum has been far less active than Oleinik, which may be a factor. However, Oleinik’s best hope is a submission win, a feat no one has ever accomplished against Werdum.

As mentioned above, most will hope this fight goes to ground at some point in the fight.  Oleinik has typically had troubles in the past with power punchers, so he may be overly eager to get Werdum down which could cause him trouble on both the feet and on the ground.  Werdum hasn’t finished an opponent with strikes since 2014 though, which is a promising statistic for Oleinik, but Werdum is still a far bigger threat in the striking department as a black belt in Muay Thai. 

Both men are late on in their careers and a win for both men will be vital to their plans moving forward.  Either way this one goes, it’s essential for Oleinik to play to his strengths, as he will most likely be finished or out-pointed easily on the feet.  The hardcore grappling/BJJ fans will be licking their lips at this contest and it may well be one of the most technical ground-game matchups we’ve ever seen in the UFC Heavyweight Division if the fight does get there. 

Pick: Werdum via decision

Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson

Next up, we have two big names who sit in the top-10 of the Women’s Strawweight Division, featuring another UFC veteran (and former UFC Women’s Strawweight Champion) in Carla Esparza (15-6) and fan-favorite, Michelle Waterson (17-6).  Esparza comes into the fight on a two-fight win-streak, whereas Waterson is coming into 249 having recently lost to another former Strawweight champ, Joanna Jędrzejczyk.  Both women have faced off against the cream of the crop in the Women’s Strawweight Division and this fight should serve as a steppingstone to put themselves in a position to make another run for the belt should they have their hand raised on May 9^th. 

Esparza, although coming into the fight with wins over Alexa Grasso and Virna Jandiroba in her last two, has never been able to capitalize on momentum after she lost her inaugural UFC title to Jędrzejczyk back in 2014.  The former UFC Women’s Strawweight champion has since struggled against the bigger names in the division and has relied heavily on winning via decision.  That said, she also has a win over another former champion, Rose Namajuanas and has fought both Cláudia Gadelha and Tatiana Suarez in the last 18 months. She will hope the level of competition she’s faced bodes well for her chances against “The Karate Hottie”, Michelle Waterson. 

Waterson, as mentioned, comes in having lost to Joanna Jędrzejczyk in October of last year. However, that doesn’t seem as significant, anymore having just witnessed one of the greatest fights of all-time featuring Jędrzejczyk and Zhang Weili for the belt.  If anything, her last fight should provide Waterson with confidence knowing that she has recently gone five rounds with Jędrzejczyk, who was one of the most dominant champions the UFC has ever seen.  Waterson has also fought and beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Felice Herrig, two top contenders within the last 18 months, as well as also having experience against Rose Namajuanas during her run for the belt, although she lost via submission.

At 32 (Esparza) and 34 (Waterson) respectfully, this fight is a must-win for both.  The Women’s Strawweight Division has never had such competition and depth, so a loss at this stage for both women could set them back irreversibly.  One should expect this to mostly be a stand-up fight with Waterson carrying an advantage as a Black Belt in Karate. However, The Karate Hottie also has 9 submission wins under her belt, which is seldom spoken about.  Esparza is a BJJ Brown Belt herself, so it may be wise for Waterson to keep the fight standing, where she has the upper hand regardless.  Either way, this is a terrific and important matchup and could be a career-defining victory for both.

Pick: Waterson via unanimous decision.

Uriah Hall vs Ronaldo Souza

This leads us to our next contest, Uriah Hall (16-9) and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (26-8).  This is a matchup that features two contrasting fighting styles that should make for an interesting bout.  Both Hall and Jacare have had an erratic last five years in terms of results, which has left them at #10 (Hall) and #14 (Souza) in the Middleweight division.  Although neither have been able to string more than two wins together at a time, they’ve competed against the very best the Middleweight Division has to offer. Both fought former UFC Middleweight champion, Robert Whittaker, top contender, Derek Brunson, and, strangely, the pair have both faced Gegard Mousasi twice inside the Octagon with one win and one loss apiece. 

The importance of the Mousasi bouts is crucial in describing both Hall’s ability and bizarre run of results.  Hall was the first man to finish Mousasi (former Strikeforce, Dream and Bellator Champion) with strikes in MMA and did so in emphatic fashion, highlighting his kickboxing and Karate capabilities.  He then went on to lose three in a row by KO, starting with former Middleweight Champion, Robert Whittaker, then Derek Brunson, and then to Mousasi in the rematch just two months later.  While they are household names in the sport, Hall, while talented (as showcased in the first Mousasi fight), has had issues when facing the top tier of the division consistently.  Still, he comes into the fight on a two-fight win streak and three wins in his last four. However, Jacare will be a tough hurdle to get over if he wants to extend his streak.

On the other side of the spectrum, we have a man known as “The Gator” due to his incredible ground-game.  Souza is a former Strikeforce Champion and a 4^th Degree Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blackbelt who has wins over three former UFC Champions in Chris Weidman, Vitor Belfort and Robbie Lawler.  He is also one of the best submission and grappling specialists the sport has ever seen.  With 14 submissions to his name, it would be no surprise to see Jacare try to get Hall down and keep him there.  Souza, however, is coming off back-to-back losses against Jack Hermansson and Jan Blachowicz (at Light Heavyweight) and will need to turn things around quickly if he’s to try and crack the top-five of the division again, particularly at the age of 40.

This is another case of both fighters absolutely needing a win but for different reasons in this scenario.  Hall can really gain momentum with a win over someone like Jacare and is still young and marketable given his explosive fighting style.  A win for Hall would get him back on track and he’d be looking at a potential top-five contender if he has his hand raised.  For Jacare, he absolutely has to win this fight, or he will have lost three in a row for the first time and last time this late in his MMA career.

Pick: Hall via TKO (round 2)

Vincente Luque vs Niko Price 2

This fight announcement between Vincente Luque (17-7-1) and Niko Price (13-3) was met with a great deal of excitement after their first Welterweight clash.  Their first encounter was short-lived, but it was action-packed while it lasted before Luque finished Price in the second round via the D’arce choke.  Luque then went on to win his next five, making it six in a row, before losing in a Fight of the Night performance against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson in November of last year.  In that time, Price has won four out of his last six, so the matchup comes at an exciting time for both fighters.

Luque will no doubt come into this contest full of confidence with a win over Price already, but also given the nature of his most recent performance against Stephen Thompson.  Thompson has been a genuine title contender for years, so for Luque to have gone three rounds against an elite kickboxer like Thompson should add further confidence, despite the decision loss.  Luque is well-rounded and has a high finish rate with 9 wins by TKO and 6 by submission.  He’s also gone the distance with another top contender, Leon Edwards in 2017. 

Price on the other hand – while less consistent – has also since fought some high-level competition in Geoff Neal, Tim Means and Abdul Razak Alhassan, despite losing to Neal and Alhassan by KO.  Regardless of those losses, Price carries a sizable amount of power in his hands and has clean and crisp boxing which is where he’s found most of his success in the past.  With 10 TKO’s to his name, Luque will have to take Price’s power seriously, particularly as Price has won all of his TKO’s with punches.

This is an important matchup for both men personally.  Price will look to avenge the loss in 2017 against a ranked opponent and Luque will hope this leads to a top-10 matchup should his hand be raised on May 9^th.  How ever this one goes, it should be a fun watch and it provides an excellent platform for both to try to climb to the upper end of the Welterweight Division. 

Pick: Luque via decision

Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa

The second fight of the night showcases another exciting matchup, featuring two unranked Featherweights trying to climb their way up the divisional ladder.  What’s most exciting about this fight is the young prospect, Bryce Mitchell (25), who comes in at 12-1, with 9 submission wins, including a Twister in his last bout which earned him the Submission of the Year in 2019.  Mitchell is a BJJ specialist with a 73% submission finish rate, unheard of in MMA. However, he’ll face by far his toughest test to date in Charles Rosa (12-3), who is a BJJ blackbelt with 8 submission wins to his credit.  Rosa has also faced tougher competition like Yair Rodriguez, Kyle Bochniak and Shane Burgos over the last five years, but has only fought twice in the last three. 

Mitchell certainly made a name for himself last year with just the second-ever Twister submission ever seen inside of the Octagon.  He rightfully won the Submission of the Year award in 2019, but we’re yet to see him face off against top competition.  While Mitchell’s ground game speaks for itself, he certainly will not have his way with Rosa, who is a high-level BJJ practitioner himself.  Another submission win over someone like Rosa would be a serious notch on his belt, but it also gives Mitchell the foundation to further showcase his striking ability and continue to make a name for himself and the Arkansas MMA community.

Rosa, on the other hand, has Fight of the Night performances against Yair Rodriguez, a top contender in the Featherweight Division and Shane Burgos who is a top-10 contender.  Although he lost both times, he demonstrated his offensive capabilities and lost a razor-thin decision to Rodriguez and Rosa would argue that he was up on the scorecards against Burgos before he was finished via TKO.  Rosa also comes into the contest with an armbar win, which was locked in so deeply, his opponent, Manny Bermudez, was forced to tap verbally. 

This fight really highlights the depth of this card.  Although Mitchell and Rosa are unranked, this is a contest that is far from the typical early prelim fight.  This is a great stylistic matchup with both men being lethal on the ground, but we may very well see Rosa keep the fight standing where he carries the advantage.  This will be a great test for Mitchell though, who will really gain momentum if he beats a seasoned opponent in Rosa. 

Pick: Rosa via decision

Ryan Spann vs Sam Alvey

The opening fight of the night features two unranked Light-Heavyweights, Ryan Spann (17-5), currently riding a seven-fight win streak and Sam Alvey (33-13), who has struggled over the last several years, losing his last three, two by TKO.  Spann has looked impressive since losing to Karl Roberson on Dana White’s Contender Series 3, with 3 TKO’s, 3 submissions and one via decision.  For Alvey, who is five years older than Spann, this is an absolute must-win contest if he’s to turn things around for himself, which seems unlikely given his poor run of form over the last 18 months. 

One should expect to see Spann come into this fight oozing with confidence, with a winning streak dating back to 2017.  He avenged his loss in Dana White’s Contender Series 3 when he returned and beat Emiliano Sordi via a 26-second guillotine finish in series 10.  Spann has also been incredibly active with those seven wins spanning across a mere two and a half years.  Spann seems to be going from strength to strength, finishing the fight wherever it goes with wins over the likes of Luis Henrique, Devin Clark in his last and against UFC legend, Antonio “Big Nog” Nogueira prior to that. 

Alvey, who is one of the most likable personalities in the UFC, has his work cut out for him though and will need to be careful regardless of where this fight goes, particularly as he’s nearing the end of his UFC contract and simply cannot afford to lose four in a row. Despite fighting 13 times since 2016, Alvey has been heavily reliant on decision victories over the last four years which makes this even more challenging against Spann, who has an 85% finish rate in his last 7. 

This fight appears to be a mismatch on paper and Spann will most likely come in heavily favored by the Vegas bookmakers.  Anything can happen in the sport of MMA though, but this looks like it could be a long (or short) night for Alvey who needs to do something drastic to avoid losing four in a row for the first time in his lengthy career.

Pick: Spann via TKO (round 1)

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