UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns: Prelims Preview:

Chris Gutiérrez vs. Vince Morales:

In the opening bout of the night, we have a featherweight contest between two natural bantamweights. Chris Gutiérrez opens as a slight favorite in this matchup and rightfully so. He is 2-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming to the extremely talented prospect Raoni Barcelos. His last fight was a controversial split decision win against Geraldo de Freitas in which he didn’t look great. However, I still feel he has the edge going into this against Morales. He is 1-2 in the UFC and likely fighting for his spot on the roster.

The game plan for Gutiérrez here is to control the pace and the distance of the fight using mainly kicks. He can chew up the lead leg of the shorter morales without any great threat of being taken down. As for Morales, he needs to use his reach advantage and look for the speedy overhand counters off the kicks. This is because a right hand to the chin from Morales can nullify an opponent’s intelligent preparation in an instant. With that being said I do see Gutiérrez walking away with the victory in a fairly exciting affair.

Louis Smolka vs. Casey Kenney:

In the second bout of the evening, we have a great match up. It is between two bantamweights once again. Casey Kenney who is 13-2-1 (2-1) in the UFC and 16-6 veteran Louis Smolka. Kenney opens up as a heavy favorite in this fight and I completely agree with the oddsmakers here. However, Kenney is a small yet natural and experienced bantamweight. As opposed to Smolka who has spent much more time as a flyweight. Kenney is coming off a loss to the very skilled Merab Dvalishvili as opposed to Smolka who is on a two-fight win streak.

Luckily, we’ve already gotten to see Kenney in action against Brandon Royval. Who shares a similar fighting style with Smolka presenting awkward and rapid threats from everywhere. Kenney easily overwhelmed Royval on the feet and on the mat for the whole fight. I feel this fight will go the same and Kenney will dominate the fight in every range despite giving up height here. Smolka, however, needs to use his awkward and fluent striking to catch Kenney coming in. As well as staying very active and aggressive off his back if he is taken down which he likely will be.

Tim Elliot vs. Brandon Royval:

In the third fight of the evening, we have a flyweight bout. It is between a UFC newcomer in the aforementioned Brandon ‘Raw Dawg’ Royval (10-4) and a UFC veteran in Tim Elliot (15-10). Elliot enters the cage on a two-fight skid. However, losing to Deiveson Figueiredo and Askar Askarov who are both top fighters. Royval is coming off two wins in LFA and possesses a wild skill set with great submissions, scrambles, and agility similarly to Elliot.

Seeing how Elliot handled Smolka as well as seeing how Casey Kenney dominated Royval made me lean towards Elliot taking home a fairly dominant victory initially. However, he has shown that his submission defense isn’t impregnable. He took a great amount of damage in his last fight which has been a common theme throughout his career with his face first striking. I believe this is a closer fight than the odds suggest. I honestly can see Royval pulling off the upset win. Possibly by hurting Elliot on the feet and wrapping him up for a submission victory.

Jamahal Hill vs. Klidson Abreu:

Here we have a light heavyweight bout. It is between a charismatic undefeated contender series standout Jamahal Hill (7-0) and young Brazilian Klidson Abreu (15-4). As much as Hill has been fun to watch through his contender series appearance and UFC debut. I see a great athlete with some great and improving skills that lack experience and is a time bomb with holes in his game waiting to blow. He is the slight favorite in this fight. However, I see this actually leaning in favor of the submission specialist Abreu.

Don’t get me wrong, if this stays on the feet things could get ugly for the basic Abreu. Who will likely be searching for overhands and hooks as Hill circles while getting stung with straights to the body and chin until he falls. However, if the far more experienced and talented grappler Klidson Abreu manages to get Hill to the mat which striker Darko Stosic did six times against Hill. Things will be getting suffocatingly ugly for ‘Sweet Dreams’. I feel Abreu will get hill down early and secure a submission taking the 0 off Hill’s perfect record.

Billy Quarantillo vs. Spike Carlyle:

In the second to last fight of this stacked preliminary card. We have a 150lb catchweight bout between contender series standout Billy Quarantillo (13-2) and ‘The Alpha Ginger’ Spyke Carlyle (8-1). Both are 1-0 in the UFC with the wild man Carlyle taking out another contender series prospect Aalon Cruz in 85 seconds. Quarantillo on the other hand finished Jacob Kilburn by submission in an equally impressive performance.

Many knowledgeable people in the game are high on Quarantillo and while I agree he is a talented fighter, I am leaning towards the underdog here Spyke Carlyle. ‘The Alpha Ginger’ is always in phenomenal shape and has a solid grappling skill set. He gives up height and reaches here but I feel his wild striking will be enough to hurt billy like it was with Cruz and once Carlyle smells blood he will hunt the finish. Of course, Quarantillo will be trying to walk him down and piece him up but the speed and athleticism will be too much for him I believe.

Katlyn Chookagian vs. Antonina Shevchenko:

In the featured bout of the prelims. We have a women’s flyweight contest between the last fighter to fall victim to dominant champion Valentina Shevchenko in Katlyn Chookagian and the aforementioned flyweight queen’s sister, Antonina Shevchenko. This is a rare opportunity where a fighter can avenge a big loss by beating a family member of the fighter who defeated them, there are some appealing stakes for Chookagian here. As for Shevchenko, it’s her opportunity to move into the top five and make a run at the title for when/ if Shevchenko ever decides to vacate.

Of course, Shevchenko has a phenomenal blueprint to beat Chookagian here and opens up as the betting favorite likely due to this. Skill for skill I feel Chookagian has shown more in terms of well-rounded talent in her many more octagon appearances than Shevchenko however Antonina keeps improving and bounced back with her first loss to Roxanne Modafferi with a submission win last time out against Lucie Pudilová. Shevchenko is a very talented Muay Thai fighter and on the feet, I feel she can outclass Katlyn. However, she has shown holes in her grappling and seems to be very green and positionally unaware in that area particularly in the Modafferi fight. Of course, she has improved which shown in her last outing but Chookagian is a solid brown belt and from top of bottom she will be an absolute nightmare for Shevchenko.

Ultimately I lean slightly towards Shevchenko. I am putting trust in her preparation and improvements which obviously we have no evidence of but knowing her team including her sister I have no doubt she has prepared excellently. I believe she will keep Chookagian away with kicking attacks and straight crosses down the pipe, piecing her up for three rounds.

This is a great preliminary card full of potential bangers and a platform for prospects to showcase their skills.

Follow me on Twitter at @Jw_MMA02 and follow us @OT_Heroics for more great content!

Also, be sure to check out the Overtime Heroics Forums page to join in on the discussion!