Ash1MMA’s UFC On ESPN 10 Best Bets

This will be a series I will be doing for the foreseeable future for each event. Betting units will be tracked at prices that were available when the bet was placed. Advice on adjustments to lines will be given in breakdowns. I give out some bets during the event live on twitter at @Ash1MMA

Last Event:

1-3

-3.5 units

Overall:

6-10

-9.27 units

A couple of bad bets on the last one, couple bad decisions on the previous cards and I find myself in a hole. No one is more disappointed than me, as I do bet with real money. Nothing to do but to chip away and make some adjustments.

Merab Dvalishvili vs Gustavo Lopez FDGTD (+145) Via 5DIMES RISKING 1.5 UNITS TO WIN 2.90

Gustavo Lopez (+600) RISKING .5 UNITS TO WIN 3 UNITS

Gustavo Lopez has had 1 fight go to decision in the past 5 years. That is out of 10 fights. The Combate American champ has thunder in his right hand as we’ve seen in his highlight reel. Merab will obviously have a grappling advantage, and in the smaller cage, a finish is more likely. I think the Serra trained Jiu-Jitsu player can find a submission or a late finish via strikes. It is a short notice fight, so I wonder if Gustavo has the cardio for the type of furious pace Merab will put on him. I can see him getting tired near the end of the fight and making big mistakes.

Not to speak on what isn’t a trend for a fighter, because that is usually a mistake, but I think Merab might be wanting to change the perception of him being a fighter to grind his way to decisions. Bantamweight is on fire right now. Dvalishvili has the talent to hang with the best but he needs a statement win to get up there. I like the Under at (+175), but with the added two minutes and change, I like “Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision” even more. The price shouldn’t change that much.

Gustavo Lopez has a college wrestling background with crazy power. The line is kind of ridiculous, and with these short-notice fights, we see crazy stuff happen all the time. It’s worth a small shot.

Karl Roberson (+205) via 5Dimes RISKING 1 UNIT TO WIN 2.05 UNITS

Karl Roberson did miss weight but I will attribute that to the circumstances of not being able to cut weight properly. That said, people who have missed weight are more likely to win statistically. I expect this fight to take place on the feet where Karl will have a decided advantage in the striking. The timing of his kicks and the power behind all of his strikes makes this guy a problem for anyone. If the fight does hit the ground he is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt who has shown good instincts and finishing ability.

Karl became a fan-favorite most recently when he took a severe eye poke that could have had him win by disqualification. He instead kept fighting and even finished the fight shortly after. That’s a testament to his heart and you know this guy will show up for you on fight night. Marvin has been around a while and I think this is a case of the new eating the old. I could see Karl getting a TKO stop or punching and kicking his way to a decision. Due to the missed weight, I’ll only be risking 1 unit to win 1.75. This line probably won’t move that much.

Charles Jourdain (+200) Via 5DIMES RISKING 1 UNIT TO WIN 2 UNITS

A lot of things are equal in this one and I see the line being of quite a bit. These two are both really good everywhere, but I do believe Jourdain has the type of stand-up pressure to make Fili make mistakes. This should be a wild back and forth exchange and I feel the younger, fresher fighter will have more success in the trenches. These two will not hold back in the small cage. Jourdain will throw up subs from his back if it gets there, he won’t get tired as he’s a double champion in TKO. All that being said, I think it’s worth a 1 unit bet at that underdog price and I don’t see it changing that much.

Jessica Eye (+115) Via 5DIMES RISKING .5 UNITS TO WIN .58

Jessica is worth a small bet here because Cynthia struggles when she has a step-up in competition. Jessica Eye missed weight, but I don’t expect it to affect her performance too much, and she will be bigger for it. Nothing really stands out about Cynthia’s game and I expect her to get overwhelmed on Saturday night.

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