Potential Playoff Matchups for the Boston Celtics in the First Round

If the Celtics hope to jump up to the 2nd seed, they will not only need to play exceptionally, but they must also hope Toronto struggles. Boston will need to finish three games better than Toronto in the remaining eight games to enforce a tiebreaker. If the two teams are tied, it will come down to their head-to-head record. The Celtics are currently 2-1 against Toronto, but since the two teams will likely play again, Toronto will have a chance to even the series.

If the Raptors beat the Celtics, the next tiebreaker will be each team’s division records. Considering Toronto is 8-4 and Boston is 7-6, Toronto will likely edge out Boston should it come to that. It’s equally as unlikely Miami will make up the ground necessary to catch the Celtics from behind. This is for all the same reasons. 

The bottom line is that the Celtics will finish as the three-seed barring dramatic change.  Catching the Raptors for second in the conference would be nice because it makes for a much easier first-round matchup. The two-seed will either play the Magic, Nets, or Wizards, all bad teams who are well below .500.

Assuming the Celtics will finish as the third seed, the matchups we will take a look at are all teams that could possibly finish in the sixth slot.

Philadelphia 76ers

The current sixth seed in the Eastern Conference is the Philadelphia 76ers. Although the Celtics have had continuous success against the 76ers in the playoffs, this is certainly not a team they want to face in the first round. Although Philly is currently 39-26, they are much better than their record shows. The 76ers are among the most talented teams in the league, with one of the best big threes in Joel Embiid (the most dominant center), Ben Simmons (the best two-way point guard), and Tobias Harris (a deadly scorer). 

In their four matchups this year, the 76ers have won three of them with a +12 differential. This should not be read into too much given that Jayson Tatum averaged 17 points per game on poor shooting and Jaylen Brown scored in single-digits in all three of those losses.

Another positive for the Celtics is that because every game will be played in Orlando, there will be no “home games” or “away games”. The Celtics have shown they can play anywhere as they are one of four teams that are eight or more games over .500 at both home and on the road.

More importantly, the 76ers’ home/road splits were among the worst in the NBA. They were dominant in Philadelphia with a 29-2 record. On the road, however, they were a miserable 10-24. Without any home games left, Philly is likely the team that will struggle the most at a neutral site.

The 76ers also have the player that will likely struggle the most without home games and fans. Joel Embiid’s home/road splits are among the most lopsided in the NBA. At home, he averaged 24.6 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on 50 percent shooting with a 121 Offensive Rating and 99 Defensive Rating. On the road, he averages 21.9 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists on 43 percent shooting with a 105 Offensive Rating and 110 Defensive Rating. Embiid also plays to the crowd more than any player, using it to both help his play and get under the skin of his opponents. Without any fans in attendance, Embiid will have this aspect of his game taken away.

A coach’s impact will be more important now than ever before. In such a unique situation, players will certainly have a range of emotions, and it will be the coach’s job to make sure they leave it all behind on the court. Aside from Gregg Popovich, Brad Stevens will excel at this more than any other coach. If the past is any indication, Brett Brown will struggle to keep his players in check. Although the two teams may be equally skilled, the huge coaching gap and numerous challenges the 76ers will face is why the Celtics will likely prevail should they get this matchup. 

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers sit in the fifth spot, tied with the 76ers with a 39-26 record. Indiana is one of the more well-rounded teams in the league, with seven players averaging double-figures. All five of the major statistical categories (points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals) are led by different players. They are also a relatively young team, as Justin Holiday is their only player over the age of 29. Indiana recently got Victor Oladipo back from a ruptured quad tendon that kept him sidelined for more than a year. In his 13 games, Oladipo has only been a fraction of his former self. He has been an All-Star and one of the best two-way players. With that being said, the four-month break will likely give him time to heal, and even if he only is 80% of his former self, it will help the Pacers significantly.

The Celtics and Pacers split their two matchups this season, and will likely not get the third one they expected. This matchup is hard to predict because in the game that the Celtics won, there was no Jaylen Brown, and Indiana was without Malcolm Brogdon. In the Indiana win, the Pacers were without Victor Oladipo, while Boston was without Marcus Smart. 

The glaring problem with Indiana is their lack of star power. Although Domantas Sabonis has had an exceptional season, him being the best player on a team raises major concerns. Sabonis is not the type of guy who you would want to suggest to get a bucket. One could even make the case that the Celtics will have the three best players in the matchup if these teams find themselves facing each other. 

In terms of how the teams match up, both frontcourts should be able to exploit the other on the offensive end. The Celtics run a small ball lineup with Jayson Tatum at the four and Daniel Theis at the five. The Pacers like to run a “twin towers” lineup with Sabonis at the four and Myles Turner at the five. Assuming Theis will draw Myles Turner, this will leave Tatum having to guard Sabonis and vice versa.

Given Sabonis is 40 pounds heavier than Tatum and one of the best post players, he should be able to have his way inside. Seeing that Enes Kanter, one of the worst defenders in the NBA, is the Celtics’ backup big man, they will not want to trust him to guard Sabonis. When only Sabonis is in the game, it will allow Theis to guard Sabonis, which will be much better. However, when Turner and Sabonis are in together, Boston will have trouble stopping them.

Although Sabonis is athletic for his size, he will have no chance to keep up with Jayson Tatum. Tatum is one of the craftiest scorers in the game and can score against even the best defenders. Now, leave Sabonis to guard him, and Tatum will drop 40 on him every night. The alternative for Indiana is to have T.J Warren guard Tatum and leave Sabonis to take Gordon Hayward. Hayward may not be as good of a scorer as JT, but he will still be able to exploit Sabonis.

The Celtics are a slightly better defensive team and a significantly better offensive team than Indiana. They also have better coaching and more experience. Both teams will have favorable matchups and unfavorable ones, but in the end, the Celtics’ star power will prove too much for Indiana.

Miami Heat

This matchup is much more unlikely than the 76ers or Pacers. Miami is currently 2.5 games back of the Celtics and 2.0 games up on the Pacers and 76ers. To fall to the six seed, Miami would have to falter a decent amount and have Indiana/Philly finish strong. Another possibility is if Philly or Indiana finishes five games better than Boston and three games better than the Heat. This would cause Boston to drop to four and Miami to five. Both of these scenarios are unlikely, but let’s still take a look at the possible matchup.

Miami has been led by All-Star Jimmy Butler and the emergence of forward Bam Adebayo, who has turned himself into one of the premier NBA centers. The Heat are one of the slowest teams in the league as they rank 27th in pace. However, when they do run in transition, they are extremely effective. They are top in the NBA in points per transition possession with 1.19 points. The Heat have a great mix of young talent (Bam, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Derrick Jones Jr.) and experienced veterans (Jimmy Butler, Andre Iguodala, Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder). 

The Celtics beat the Heat twice this season already, despite missing Hayward in the first game and Tatum in the second. In the two regular season matchups, Boston made the most of going at Duncan Robinson on a regular basis. In the playoffs, Brad Stevens has loved to hunt mismatches. Expect Stevens and the Celtics to continue to go right at Robinson if they play.

If they do meet in the playoffs, it’s the rare occasion where Boston actually has a slight size advantage. Miami likes to start games big, with Adebayo at the four and Myers Leonard or Kelly Olynyk at the five. Soon after, the Heat like to go small with Adebayo playing the five for most of the game. This will help the regularly undersized Celtics match up easier.

The Heat have two of the best defenders in the league in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. They also have good veteran defenders off the bench in Andre Iguadola and Jae Crowder. The rest of their starting lineup, which features Leonard, Nunn, and Robinson, are not great defenders. It will be key for the Celtics to exploit these matchups. Assuming Butler will guard Tatum, it may be best for Tatum to take a backseat and let Kemba, Jaylen, Gordon, and Marcus Smart be more aggressive.

Miami’s Erik Spoelstra is one of the most experienced and successful coaches in the league. If the Heat and Celtics play each other in the playoffs, the matchup will contain two of the three best coaches in the Eastern Conference. Miami is a more experienced and well-rounded team than both Indiana and Philly. Therefore, expect them to be the toughest matchup for the Celtics should they play each other.

Check out my previous article where I create the perfect Boston Celtics team! https://www.overtimeheroics.net/2020/05/28/boston-celtics-all-time-team/