Three Dark Horse MLB Candidates Who Could Hit .400

Overtime Heroics Editorial

1884 days ago

No MLB player has yet reached the batting average of .400 in a qualified season since 1941, when Ted Williams hit .406. Williams played in 143 games that season, which makes his average all the more impressive. However, players this season are only playing 60 games, which opens the possibility of a hitter reaching the mythical mark of a .400 batting average.

Why is this a possibility? Well since 1942, seven MLB hitters have hit over .400 over their first 60 games. Chipper Jones, Tony Gwynn, Larry Walker, Paul O’Neill, Rod Carew, Hank Aaron, and Ted Williams each hit .400 or better throughout their first 60 games of the season.

While no active player has reached the mark of .400 or better through their first 60 games, four active players have hit .400 over a 60 game span during the season.

Should We Expect This Feat?

According to the numbers, we should not. According to research done by MLB.com senior data architect Tom Tango, the chance that any qualified player would hit .400 this season is 3%. Which gives them much more a chance than in a regular 162-game season, where the percentage is 0.0012%.

Who are Some Dark Horses that can Reach .400?

Hitting .400 this year would pail in comparison to Ted Williams‘ historic 1941 season, but it would still be a fun chase to watch. So even though it may not be as impressive as Williams’ record and the odds are stacked against it, it is intriguing to imagine the candidates that could possibly do it. The obvious players with a chance are Trout, Bellinger, Yelich, and Rendon. But what is more interesting to look at, is some of the younger, lesser-known crowd’s chances at reaching the feat. So here are some MLB dark horses with a shot at joining the .400 club.

Bryan Reynolds

Reynolds, the switch-hitting outfielder broke onto the scene in Pittsburgh and finished his rookie campaign hitting .314. As late as June 30, he was hitting just above .350. At the All-Star break Reynolds’ average was an impressive .342.

With room to grow as a rookie, Reynolds showed a lot of promise of taking the next step as one of the game’s brightest young stars for the Pirates. The Pittsburgh outfielder showed off his speed and hard hitting contact all throughout his first year in the MLB. Reynolds registered in at 76th percentile in sprint speed, and 67th percentile in hard hitting contact. With the combination of contact and speed, Reynolds showed all the right tools to be a breakout candidate during this season.

The only thing holding Reynolds back from reaching this feat is his tendency to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. Last year, he had a 28% chase rate at the plate. But if Reynolds can cut down on swinging at the bad, and focus on driving the pitches in the zone, he has a chance of reaching an average of .400.

Luis Arraez

Arraez led the Twins in batting average last year, hitting an impressive .334. Though a span of 60 games, the young Twins infielder topped out at a batting average of .340.

Luis Arraez was a shining young star on the Twins and proved to show impressive bat-to-ball skills. His impressive 93.3% contact rate was the highest among the players qualified. Pair his impressive contact rate with his minimal strikeout rate (7.9%), and you get a perfect dark horse candidate to hit .400 out in Minneapolis.

Alex Verdugo

Verdugo possesses incredible bat-to-ball skills which may help soften the blow for Red Sox fans as they watched their beloved Mookie Betts get traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his 377 plate appearances last season, the young Boston outfielder struck out only 13% of the time. On top of his impressive strike out rate, Verdugo’s 16% whiff rate proves his ability to make contact, and his 91.2 zone-contact rate was top 20 in the MLB. His combination of consistent contact and avoiding strikeouts are going to be two keys to join the .400 club.

It may be a bit of a reach for a player that only hit .294 to make a leap to .400. But in a shortened season in a new league, Verdugo could be primed to make an impressive leap in batting average. He also will be looking to win the Boston fans over as he will more than likely be seen as Mookie’s replacement. A young player in a new league with solid bat-to-ball skills and a lot to prove makes for an excellent dark horse candidate to hit .400.

It Will Be Tough to Reach .400

Without a doubt, it will be incredibly tough to hit .400 for anyone throughout the league. Shortening the schedule will not make it much easier. However, there are plenty of big name players with the capability of joining the club, and even some young dark horses that may burst onto the scene and make a push for that illustrious club.