Ranking Each MLB Division at the One-Third Mark

Because every team’s schedule consists of 2/3 divisional games and 1/3 games vs. one inter-league division, it’s hard to judge division strength against one another. So, I’m really looking at a couple of different parameters to determine division strength. How tight is the divisional race? How have teams looked when playing? Who’s producing, and who’s not?

I have also given thoughts on where each team is in the playoff chase. Keep in mind that this year will have expanded playoffs, which means three additional teams from each league will make it. Many more teams are in the chase than ever before. Teams will be put into a category based on their chances of making the postseason based on their performance thus far, and what the rest of the division looks like.

A quick rundown of the categories:

• Likely playoff teams: Pretty self-explanatory. These are the teams that are expected to make the postseason based on current performance and/or expectations.
• In the hunt: These are teams that may or may not be currently in a postseason spot, but are just a few games out of a spot, or expected to compete for one.
• Work to do: These are teams that are not currently in a postseason spot with significant ground to cover. They will need to go a solid run (and possibly get some help) to get in the hunt.
• See you next season: These are teams that might as well start looking forward to 2021. Virtually no chance to make the postseason without some divine intervention.

Here is where I have the divisions ranked as of the completion of Friday’s games:

1. AL Central Division

Disclaimer: I am a Royals fan, so you may think this is biased, but the metrics suggest that the AL Central is the strongest division so far. This division race is tight. Only four games separate first and last place. It is also the only division with four teams over .500 (before Saturday’s games). The Twins and Indians have playoff-caliber rosters. The Tigers have been one of the surprise teams in the early goings. The White Sox have shown flashes of brilliance. Even the last-place Royals have looked good at times. 

Likely playoff teams: Twins, Indians

It’s hard to imagine these two teams not finishing first and second (in either order). These are the preseason favorites and have played like it so far. They could get a challenge from the other three teams, but both Minnesota and Cleveland should be playing in October.

In the hunt: Tigers, White Sox, Royals

The Tigers have been a surprise team early on, but could it be a result of their soft opening schedule? Detroit opened against the Reds (3-3), Royals (2-2), and Pirates (3-0). They are now playing their first teams with winning records (White Sox and Indians) and have gone 1-3. They haven’t faced the Twins yet. I’m still not sold on them, but for now, they’re here.

The White Sox added a lot of free-agent signings to go with their young core of players with the hope to get over the hump. The White Sox have not played in the postseason since 2008. They seem poised to end that long drought.

The Royals have been a hard-luck team early on. Seven of their losses have been by one or two runs. They tightened the division race by sweeping the first-place Twins this past weekend and have won five of six overall to get back into the hunt.

2. NL West Division

The Dodgers were (and still are) a trendy World Series pick, but they’ll have to earn it this year. This division is no joke! The Rockies and Padres look to be playoff teams. The Giants look a bit better than expected. The only “disappointing” team (and remember, it’s still early) has been Arizona. With the expanded playoff field, it’s possible that this division could have four teams in the postseason.

Likely playoff teams: Dodgers, Rockies

How good have the Dodgers been? They have a run differential of +54 in 21 games! That means on average, they win by about 2.5 runs per game, including losses. That’s incredible! They’ve been a championship contender for a few years now, but this might be the most impressive I’ve seen them. Because they share a division with the Rockies and Padres, they’ll likely take on more losses than if they were in say, the NL Central. This could affect their seeding, but the Dodgers will likely be a favorite no matter where they start.

Right here are the Rockies, who are only one game behind the Dodgers for the division lead. This will be a fun race to watch as the season progresses.

In the hunt: Padres

As good as the Padres have looked at times this season, they might just have to settle for third place with how well the Dodgers and Rockies have played in the early goings. For a while there, the Padres were right there with them, but they’ve fallen back a bit. They still have a good shot to make the postseason as a wild-card.

Work to do: Diamondbacks, Giants

These two teams are not really as bad as their records indicate. They are just in a really tough division. Both teams have gotten some wins on the contenders, so don’t count them out just yet. One of them could unseat or join the Padres as a wild-card team, but they have to start stringing together some victories.

3. AL East Division

The Yankees are once again the team to beat in the AL East. Usually, their main competition has been the Red Sox, and sometimes another team. Well, this hasn’t been the Red Sox’s year. So, this year, it’s the Rays and…Orioles?

Likely playoff teams: Yankees, Rays

This is what we all thought, right? The Yankees and Rays dueling it out for the division crown. Luckily for them, with all the extra spots up for grabs, it’s highly likely both will be playing in October, even if the Orioles continue to be a thorn in their sides.

In the hunt: Orioles

Yes, I’m just as surprised as you are. The Orioles would be a playoff team if the season ended today. The question is whether or not they can keep this going. It’s not unheard of for a rebuilding team to get off to a good start. I’m not as confident in them as I am the Yankees or Rays, but they’ll be a great story if they continue to play well.

Work to do: Blue Jays

I get it. The Blue Jays were dealt a tough blow in that they were not permitted to play in their home city this season due to COVID and have been relegated to play their home games in Buffalo. They have a lot of young, raw talent that’s probably still a year or two away from competing. Finishing .500 is a solid goal for this club on the rise.

See you next season: Red Sox

I never thought I’d be typing this so soon, but the Red Sox have dug themselves a really deep hole. While they weren’t expected to compete, winning just six of the first 20 games and a (-34) run differential is probably not what they were thinking.

4. NL East

This was a popular pick for the toughest division going into the season, with the one team everyone thought would be in last place (the Marlins) out to a lead. Actually, given the year that we’re in, it makes perfect sense.

Likely playoff teams: Braves, Marlins

I still think the Braves take the division. The Marlins have been playing great, but I don’t believe they have the roster to keep up with a Braves team that I don’t think has quite hit its stride yet.

Similar to the Orioles, the Marlins have been a team that has surprised a lot of people. They had a COVID outbreak after the first weekend and missed some time. They have looked good since returning but will have to play a decent amount of doubleheaders to catch back up. They’ve looked much better than the Mets, Phillies, and Nationals so far, so I think they make it as the division runner-up.

In the hunt: Mets, Nationals, Phillies

It’s really hard to say where these teams are truly at since all of these teams have played a different number of games, but all are only four games behind the Marlins. All three teams will have to make up some additional games due to postponements from the Marlins’ outbreak. They all have the roster to work themselves into the postseason. But it’s been a disappointing start for all the teams, especially from the defending champ Nationals.

5. AL West

There’s really only one good team in this division right now, and that’s Oakland. Though, the Rangers have gotten back to .500 after a rough start. The Astros, to the delight of pretty much every other fanbase, have struggled early on and found themselves in a battle with their cross-state rival for the other guaranteed playoff spot. The Angels and Mariners, though? Woof.

Likely playoff teams: Athletics

The A’s have to like where they’re at- a commanding lead in a soft division. They recently finished off sweeps of the Rangers and Astros, their closest competition to get to where they sit now. If they continue this domination, they’ll be the #1 seed in the AL.

In the hunt: Rangers, Astros

The Battle for Texas is becoming the Battle for Second Place as Oakland has a solid lead over both. Since the division runner-up also gets an automatic bid to the postseason, I can see

The Rangers have played very well of late. They have won six of their last seven after starting 3-8. They’re currently on a tough road trip going to Colorado and San Diego. That could very well decide their fate. Survive that, and you like their chances.

The Astros really could not have started off any worse than they have (OK, I suppose they could be the Mariners), but this has been a rough stretch for them. If the season ended today, they wouldn’t qualify. They will get plenty of opportunities to get back into it, but to do so, they’ll have to take care of business against the teams they should beat. They will also have to start beating some good teams as well, as they are 0-5 against teams with winning records (Dodgers and A’s).

Work to do: Angels

It amazes me that the Angels continue to waste Mike Trout’s prime by fielding a mediocre team at best. They have quite a bit of ground to make up. To make matters worse for them, right now they’re only a half-game better than the Mariners, who have the worst run differential in baseball.

See you next season: Mariners

I was tempted to put them in the “work to do” column, since they aren’t that out of it, but they also have the worst run differential in baseball. There’s still time, but the M’s haven’t really shown they can compete with the other teams, especially with how good Oakland has looked.

6. NL Central

Like the AL West, there’s really only one good team: the Cubs. This was a hard division to pick the winner out of before the season began, with many different predictions picking every team to win with the exception of the Pirates. 

The Cardinals’ COVID breakout has affected not only them, but every other team in the division as all of the teams have had a series with St. Louis postponed, so they’ll have to play the doubleheader game to get caught up as well.

Likely playoff teams: Cubs

Like the Athletics, The Cubs are in a good spot. They not only have the National League’s best record, but they are in a soft division, so the chances of them playing in October is very high. With the Reds and Brewers going at each other, the Cardinals trying to catch up, and the Pirates just being bad, the Cubs should coast to the postseason. 

In the hunt: Reds, Brewers

The Reds were a trendy pick to win the division with all the offseason acquisitions they made. While they have gotten off to somewhat of a rocky start, the Cubs have built a huge lead. They’re currently in second place, so a playoff spot is well within reach. The Brewers are right there with them. They’ve played two fewer games, but are in a virtual tie.

The two teams will most likely duke it out with each other for second place (the Cardinals will likely join in as well), but the third-place team has a shot at making the playoffs as a wild card. 

Work to do: Cardinals

The “work” in this instance is different when it comes to the Cardinals (I would consider them “in the hunt” with regards to postseason aspirations). After all the postponements from their COVID outbreak, they will resume playing on Saturday against the White Sox. Even if they are able to play themselves into a postseason bid, will they have any left in the tank? That’s a lot of baseball in such a short amount of time. It’s also hard to tell how good the Cardinals really are with as little games as they’ve played.

See you next season: Pirates

I haven’t seen anything to suggest the Pirates will be at all competitive this season. They will win some games here and there, but they’ll be the favorite to be picking first next June.  

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