2023 MLB Hall of Fame: Bobby Abreu’s Case

That"s exactly what makes his Hall of Fame candidacy special.

Bobby Abreu"s Voting History for the MLB Hall of Fame

Abreu is entering his fourth year on the ballot. In 2020, he narrowly stayed on the ballot with 5.5% of the vote. He had a solid jump to 8.7% in 2021, but he did not maintain his momentum in 2022, slipping two 8.6%. In fairness to Abreu, he was contending with highly controversial figures such as Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens in those votes.

Career Peak

Abreu has two peaks aligning with the two slightly different players he was. In 1998, Abreu had his best season as an outfielder, and he had a solid hitting season. He had a staggering 14 intentional walks despite hitting just 17 home runs. He totalled 6.4 WAR, finishing second in the NL in dWAR despite playing right field.

Abreu had a special 2004 campaign. He was only average as an outfielder, but he slugged 30 home runs, drove in 105, and stole 40 bases. He also tacked on 47 doubles. His .301/.428/.544 slash line was good for an OPS+ of 145. He led the NL in power speed, and he was fourth in stolen base percentage.

In 1998, he was passed over entirely for awards, but in 2004 Abreu had his most successful season. He was an All-Star and won his only Silver Slugger. He also finished 23rd in MVP voting.

Bobby Abreu in his Prime

Abreu had some effective seasons after this stretch, but his best run of play came from 1998 to 2004. In seven seasons, Abreu racked up 41.6 WAR, 163 home runs, and 203 stolen bases. He walked over 100 times per season, and he finished with an excellent slash line of .308/.416/.525. He was sixth in WAR. In the timespan, only Alex Rodriguez had 150 home runs and 150 steals. Abreu had at least 5.0 WAR in all seven seasons, one more time than Rodriguez and Barry Bonds. He had more 5-WAR seasons in his streak than Hall of Famers Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ernie Banks, and Tony Gwynn (among others) had in their entire careers.

Abreu drew 100 or more walks in all six seasons from 1999 to 2004, a feat only matched by Jim Thome. His full streak of eight seasons with at least 100 walks is only matched by Frank Thomas (1991-1998) since World War II. Abreu, the consummate all-around player, was worth +11 runs on the basepaths and +57 runs in the field. Despite playing primarily right field, Abreu had +1.1 dWAR.

Bobby Abreu"s Legacy

Abreu was an underappreciated star in his era. For 14 seasons, Abreu slashed .295/.399/.484 for a 131 OPS+. He poured in 39 doubles, 20 home runs, and 28 steals per season even into his late 30s. The WAR totals began to slip as he aged, but he was still a reliable hitter into his Angels tenure. Instead of a career with a slew of All-Star appearances, Silver Sluggers, and Gold Gloves, Abreu had to settle for just four combined. Strangely, he received MVP votes seven times including top-20 marks in three seasons he was not an All-Star.

Abreu ranks 93rd in oWAR, 81st in on-base percentage, and 123rd in OPS. He"s also 81st in games played, 82nd in runs scored, and 88th in total bases. He fell 30 hits shy of 2,500, and he is top 25 all-time in doubles and walks. He stole 400 bases, and he is 14th in power speed. Compared to his right field contemporaries, Abreu had more WAR than both Ichiro Suzuki and Vladimir Guerrero Sr. His seven-year peak was better than Gwynn"s.

2023 MLB Hall of Fame Likelihood

Abreu might crack 10% of the vote this year, but he is unlikely to make the Hall of Fame. His best trait is one of the least appreciated in the Hall of Fame – plate discipline. Abreu never played in the World Series, and he only played in one LCS, a pitiful performance when he was 35. Perhaps if Abreu had his prime with the Yankees and then went to the Phillies, Abreu would have had more postseason success and more accolades. The Phillies went to the playoffs the five seasons after trading Abreu. The Yankees won three World Series, went to two more, and made the playoffs every year from 1998 to 2004.

Abreu is also likely hurt by slipping under some statistical plateaus. When 2007 ended, Abreu was a career .300/.408/.500 hitter. He fell under .500 slugging in 2008, .300 average in 2009, and .400 on-base in 2011. His OPS+ fell below 130 in 2011 as well. Abreu was 30 hits from 2,500, 12 home runs from 300, 26 doubles from 600, 47 runs from 1,500, and 24 walks from 1,500. If Abreu had one extra effective season, he likely surpasses those milestones and is a much more serious Hall of Fame candidate. Only Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, and Carl Yastrzemski hit all of those numbers.

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