Why are the Rangers Waiting to Re-sign Lafreniere?

Could the Rangers Lose Lafreniere?

Alexis Lafreniere has spent his first three seasons in the NHL with the Rangers signed to an Entry Level Contract (ELC). The young Ranger’s ELC ended on July 1, which has made him a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) for this offseason. After signing ten players after NHL Free Agency began, the Rangers roster is nearly set. The only move remaining for Drury to make this offseason is to sign Lafreniere and the $2.2 million in cap space they have left should be enough to bring ‘Laffy’ back to Broadway.

Since Lafreniere is a Restricted Free Agent, there are NHL teams who could offer him an offer sheet at an Average Annual Value (AAV) higher than the $2.2 million that the Rangers can afford to spend, which would mean he would leave Broadway. If this happened Drury would have two options: match the offer sheet and keep Lafreniere, or decline to, lose Lafreniere and receive compensation for it.

There are several tiers for offer sheet compensation based on the average annual value (AAV) of the contract being offered and compensation can only include draft picks. The first tier is when a team offers a RFA $1.4 million or less and that would result in no compensation. The second tier is when a team offers a RFA between $2.1 million and $4.2 million and that would result in a second-round pick as compensation. Second tier is where a team would have to make Lafreniere an offer sheet because that team would have to go above $2.2 million or else the Rangers would match.

Several teams across the NHL including the Buffalo Sabres could afford both the AAV and the compensation that it would take to sign Lafreniere to an offer sheet. Additionally, Lafreniere scored more points last season than three of the four left wings on the Sabres depth chart, which means he would probably earn top six minutes if he were to sign with Buffalo. It’s getting late in the NHL offseason and Drury shouldn’t let this contract negotiation drag on much longer because the Rangers can still lose the first-overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft and end up with a second-round pick in return.

Comparing Lafreniere to Jack Hughes

Three seasons into his NHL career, Alexis Lafreniere has scored 91 points in 216 games. The native of St. Eustache, Quebec set a career high with 39 points last season and even showed flashes of brilliance at times, but his average point total of 30 per season pales in comparison to the numbers that two former number one picks have been putting up across the Hudson River.

Missed the Rangers game against the Capitals but just watched the highlights. Good solid 5-2 win. Beautiful goal from Alexis Lafreniére too. Nice. #NYR pic.twitter.com/LRuTwmUUAN

— Skippy Johnston 🦘 (@LukeAFoley) April 2, 2023

Let’s start by comparing Lafreniere to Jack Hughes, who was selected first overall in 2019 by the New Jersey Devils. Hughes is currently 22 years old and just six months older than Lafreniere but has scored 207 points in 244 games. That’s 106 more points than Lafreniere has scored during his career in 28 fewer games. The second Devils player to compare is Nico Hischier, who was picked first overall in the 2017 NHL Draft.

Since Hischier is three years older than Lafreniere, it makes more sense to compare his first three full seasons to Lafreniere’s instead of his career point total. Nico Hischier  scored 52 points in his rookie season, while Lafreniere scored 21 but in many fewer games because that season was shortened due to the pandemic. In Hischier’s second season, he had 47 while Lafreniere had 31. Comparing Hischier’s third season statistics to Lafreniere’s, if you don’t count the COVID-shortened seasons of 2019-20 and 2020-21 which were Hischier’s third and fourth seasons and skip to his fifth season, where he scored 60 points in 70 games. Hischier was able to score 21 more points than Lafreniere did this past season, in 11 fewer games,

Even Noah Dobson, who was drafted 12th overall by the New York Islanders in the 2018 Draft, has 30 more points than Lafreniere has, in his career and Dobson is a defenseman. Let’s not attack Lafreniere anymore because his best years might just be ahead of him. Let’s remember that Hischier scored just 36 points as a 21-year-old and since then has turned into a first line center on a playoff team.

Why 2023-24 will be an Important Season for Lafreniere

Alexis Lafreniere may be entering only his fourth season in the National Hockey League but given his expectations, his career is at cross-roads. A breakout season in 2023-24 would do wonders for Lafreniere and perhaps the coaching staff that’s been put together by new head coach Peter Laviolette will be able to bring it out of him. Michael Peca, who won two Selke Trophies across 14 NHL seasons as a player will be one of Laviolette’s assistant coaches behind the Rangers bench next season.

Peca had an experience in his first three seasons that is similar to Lafreniere’s. While Lafreniere was a first-overall pick and Peca was a 40th overall pick, Peca still was taken relatively early in the draft. Like Lafreniere, Peca didn’t live up to expectations early on but stepped up his game as a 22-year-old in the NHL. Next season, Lafreniere will be 22 years old, and it will be his fourth season in the NHL. That means it is time for him to start showing everyone that he is as good a player as the Rangers thought they were getting when they drafted him first overall in the 2020 draft.

Lafreniere could get bumped up to the Rangers top six forward group next season, which would mean he’d play more minutes. This would help him score more points because he’d be playing more minutes and he’d be playing with great playmakers like Mika Zibanejad or Artemi Panarin instead of inexperienced players Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko.

However, the Rangers new head coach, Peter Laviolette is a very experienced NHL head coach and is not going to just give Lafreniere a spot on the Rangers top six. Instead, Laviolette is going to make the Rangers potential superstar earn more playing time and it remains to be seen if Lafreniere will be able to raise his game enough to prove that he can produce like a former number one pick should.