The NFL added the overtime period in 1974 to decide regular season games that ended regulation time with a tie score, 647 games between 1974 and 2022 have been resolved in overtime.
This flowchart shows my results from simulating NFL playoff overtime, a hot topic since the Super Bowl.
My numbers indicate that there is effectively no advantage between choosing to kick or receive, which aligns with research done by @bburkeESPN and @StatsbyLopez .
Details⬇️ pic.twitter.com/G2HEZnKwSD
— Walker Harrison (@WalkWearsCrocs) February 18, 2024
The 2022 regular season it included 20 games that went to overtime, as compared to 21 games in total during the 2021 season.
The 2022 season had 25 games that were decided by a game-winning score on the final play, including the Minnesota Vikings’ Week 15 victory coming back from a 33-point deficit, the largest comeback in NFL history.
As for NFL rules, the overtime rules have evolved. In 2010 the league introduced a modified sudden-death overtime system to help determine a winner in a tie game for the 2010 postseason.
In 2012 the league expanded and directed those rules to cover all NFL games. By 2017, NFL clubs approved on shortening overtime in the regular season to 10 minutes from 15.
In 2022, NFL clubs again approved a rule that allows both teams to possess the ball in overtime in the postseason.
The current Overtime rules allow both teams the opportunity to possess the ball at least once in overtime. Although, during the regular season, if the team that gets the ball first scores a touchdown on the opening possession, they win.
As per research posted on X recently, it suggested the numbers indicate that there is effectively no advantage between choosing to kick or receive.
As per the chart of the research and the methodology it analyses, the receiving team kicks XP on the first possession, the kicking team goes for two down 7, and Defensive scores happen about 1% of the time.
