The New York Yankees had a disappointing season in 2023, missing the playoffs for the first time in six years. Despite signing Aaron Judge to a massive contract, his season was plagued by a torn ligament in his toe.
The team made some moves in the offseason, acquiring Juan Soto and Marcus Stroman to bolster their roster. However, according to Baseball-Reference’s projections, the Yankees are expected to have one of their worst seasons in franchise history, finishing with a 72-91 record and last place in the AL East.
Baseball Reference is projecting the Yankees to finish last in the AL East at roughly 72-90
With 90% confidence, they're predicting their best case record at 82-80, and their worst case record at 61-101 pic.twitter.com/BFHVqH7doj
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) March 26, 2024
Their chances of making the playoffs are slim, with only a 2.7 percent chance. On the other hand, the Toronto Blue Jays are projected to have a more successful season, with an 86-76 record and a 63.2 percent chance of making the playoffs.
They have a 2.2 percent chance of winning the World Series. Overall, the projections favor the Blue Jays over the Yankees in the AL East.
Baseball-Reference predicts that the Baltimore Orioles have a 12.9 percent chance of winning the World Series, the second-highest after the LA Dodgers. However, the offseason in Toronto, which received criticism, might not have been as bad as expected.
The American League East is expected to be the strongest division in MLB during the 2024 season, with four out of five teams projected to have winning records and contend for the playoffs. The division race is expected to be tightly contested.
The New York Yankees and the Orioles are favorites to win the division, with the Blue Jays and Rays also considered as contenders. The Boston Red Sox are seen as a long shot. In the past few years, the preseason favorites have not been able to win the AL East. The Yankees were the last preseason favorite to do so in 2019.
Projections for win totals and division standings differ from betting markets, with the Blue Jays, Rays, and Orioles being ranked differently. Due to these differences, it is suggested to monitor the market throughout the season for discounted prices.
The prediction for the AL East is that the Red Sox will finish fifth, as they have in the past two years. They have the lowest win total in the division and are expected to be eight games behind the fourth-place Orioles according to PECOTA. The Red Sox are a decent team but are not expected to compare to the other teams in the AL East.
Hmmm….. pic.twitter.com/ytBZXwNepB
— Jim Lyons 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@jpclyons) March 26, 2024
Fans reacted as follows.
They won 82 games with a worse roster last year lol
— TheLandryShift (@TheLandryShift) March 26, 2024
Quick someone get Ippei's bookie on the phone, I want to place a bet!
— NYC_Genie 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇮🇱 (@NYC_Genie) March 26, 2024
Are they having 👨🏽⚖️ & Soto out for the year?
— Rob Féliz (@Robfeliz) March 26, 2024
Not wrong
— Justin Penik (@JustinPenik) March 26, 2024
LMAO 😂. I do think our pitching needs improvement BUT with our lineup (provided Judge, Stanton, Soto, Gleyber, Rizzo, Verdugo stays healthy, plus the Martian coming back AND spencer jones (if needed) we should be all good
— Kevin Masterkev (@KevinMasterKev) March 26, 2024
That's even worse than what i thought. But, they aren't wrong , this teams offense loves to disappear when it counts and the pitching is dreadful
— Matt Gaetz Press Release (kidding) (@MattGaetzPress) March 26, 2024
No way! They still have a great bullpen and enough hitting to handle the starting pitching not being elite every night.
Then throw in the fact that they have the ability to be buyers at the trade deadline.
72 win is click bait.#Yankees 👊🏾
— Knghtrder169 (@knghtrder169) March 26, 2024
For this to happen: pitching staff is as bad as last year, Dj, Rizzo and Stanton all fall off a cliff. Judge gets hurt. They have to be weighing age heavily along with Cole’s injury
— John Farel (@farel_john) March 26, 2024
Fangraphs projects them to win the division and have the 4th best record in baseball. I’ll take the site who is known for projections. I LOVE Bref but this isn’t really their wheelhouse it’s like when Burger King wojld sell tacos
— K. C. (@kc_dos_siete) March 26, 2024
I’m predicting more or less the same I figure second to last or last place this year. Maybe they keep the winning season streak alive but this team is primed to fall apart due to injuries and lack of athleticism. Might not be worth investing too much time on the @Yankees this…
— lopez1257 (@PeZLo1257) March 26, 2024
Unfortunately, Cole probably pitches less than 10 games this season and that will cost them a dozen wins.
But another key is Stanton. He’s been dead weight and really throttles the roster.
— Koz (@HHI_Golf_Guy) March 26, 2024
The @RedSox might be much worse than 69-93
Their pitching was the 10th worst in baseball last season and they subtracted Chris Sale & James Paxton and didn’t add anyone pic.twitter.com/QxGH1pVNx1
— Nathaniel (@ndonovan99) March 26, 2024
This is obviously a mistake but I feel like people are pretty massively underestimating how far the rotation slid. Cole could be done for the whole year, and you swapped Michael King for Stroman. The entire season is completely banking on Rodon
— Brad Holmes (@BRADHOLME5) March 26, 2024
Yep. That is what they've built. Awful. Pure late 80s awful Yankee teams. As Yogi said…. Deja Vu all over again. @Yankees
— Coach Daniels (@cdaniels1134) March 26, 2024
All I will say is if they go 71-91 they will finally clean house. It wouldn't make any difference how many injuries they have. That I think would finally get rid of Cashman and Boone and Hal would pretty much fire everybody who works for him.
— Michael Dorbuck (@mikedorb1) March 26, 2024
not winning the division i understand but 72 wins is crazy. they must really not believe in the rotation
— casual sports (@casualnflmlbfan) March 26, 2024
all while fangraphs have have them at 88 wins (4th best in the MLB/1st in AL east)
and multiple sports books have them 1st and 90+ wins
none of these even matters tbh
— Cam 🇺🇦 (@JudgesTorres) March 26, 2024
Yet Fan Graphs gives the Yankees the best chances to make the playoffs of all AL East teams
— Nikolas Hoffman (@nikhoffman48) March 26, 2024
Their prediction system is based on the last 100 games to start the season. The Yankees were 8 under .500. It will change as the season goes on
— PeterD (@pd8779) March 26, 2024
The blue jays being so high is crazy. I know they have pitching but look at the bottom of their lineup!
— Ben 🦊 ⚾️ 🏀 🏈 (@benfox232) March 26, 2024
Team is about to be reset again after this year. People who want Cashman fired need to realize he ain’t going anywhere because he can always sell Hal on lottery tickets(cheap players) while paying older constantly hurt guys. Cash was right on DJ we all owe him apology.
— Soggyapples (@jherb1323) March 26, 2024
90% confidence is meaningless lol. You can say you’re 100% confident but that means nothing until it happens
— Jardani Jovonovich (@Oneluckyguy73) March 26, 2024
The issues were not pitching, it was hitting they added the best bat but only one bat. Now they have pitching problems. No hope till cash and hal are gone
— jack straw (@jackstrawelf) March 26, 2024
NYY went 82-80 but went 48-56 the last 4 mths. Based on run diff, they should have been 78-84. The improvements from Nesty, Rodon, Stro, and Schmidt is negated by losing Cole. Soto might negate the any regression from the others. Volpe's improvement may be marginal.
— Mike Yang (@GamblingGourmet) March 26, 2024
These are just projections but it shows why the Yankees needed to go over the tax and spend as much as possible to field a definite playoff team. Right now, it is fringe, especially with how thin they are in the infield.
— JB (@UPTOWNBUF) March 26, 2024
