The Kansas City Royals entertain the Houston Astros and start the game as favorites, lying second in the American League central with an 8-4 record.
The Astros meanwhile are struggling and sit in the basement of the American League West with a 4-9 record.
Kansas City have won their last six games, including two over the Astros and will be looking for a series sweep.
Houston have been struggling on the mound, conceding 11 in their last match against the Royals, and spilt their previous series 2-2 with the Texas Rangers.
The visitors have conceded 37 home runs in their last six -115encounters and will have to be more accurate if they want to avoid another blow-out loss. Bookmakers disagree and have installed the Astros as the -115 favorite, with the Royals at +114.
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Breakdown: A Tale of Two Teams
Team Royals Astros Record 8-4 4-9 O/U Record 3-7-1 3-8-1 Spread Record 7-4-0 4-8-0 Injuries Josh Taylor, Michael Massey, Jake Brentz, Carlos Hernandez, Auston Cox, Asa Lacy, Christian Chamberlain, Kris Bubic, Kyle Wright Oliver Ortega, Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Shawn Dubin, Bennett Sousa, Luis Garcia, Jairo Solis Key players to watch Vinnie Pasquantino, Hunter Renfroe Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz - Time: 2:10 PM ET
- Venue: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
- Live Stream: BSKC
The head-to-head record between the two teams over the past six years is remarkably close with the Royals trailing the Astros 13-14. Kansas have won their last four outings against Houston scoring a combined 31 home runs and conceding 17.
The fact that aggregator bookmakers have made Houston favorites suggest a comeback outing from the Astros, but we don’t pick it that way. Looking at form and historical evidence it seems likely the Royals will win a close game.
The form guides may be looking at injuries with the Astros without the likes of Oliver Ortega, Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander.
Yordan Alvarex is the pick of the Houston batters going at .357 with four homes and 11 RBI, and he is 13th in on-base percentage and 12th in slugging.
The best at bat for the royals has been MJ Melendez, who has the 13th best home run total (3) and 41st on the RBI list. But he brings a hitting streak of seven games into the contest, batting at .344 with three doubles, three home runs, six walks and eight RBI.
Bobby Witt Jr is also on form with five doubles, two triples, two home runs and three walks (.313).
Our Picks:
Royals vs Astros – Astros start as favorites against the Royals, we call it slightly different.
Houston have entered the game as favorites 11 times this season and have only win twice, hence our pick on the Royals underdog.
Based on the MoneyLine the win probability favors Houston and sits at 57.4% and have won two of five games when favored at least -135.
Kansas City thrive on the underdog status winning four of eight contests when they have been suggested to lose.
Royals ATS: In their past ten games this season the Astros and their opponents the over in 40% of their games. Expect a close call within the spread.
Astros ATS: The Astros have gone against the spread 3-6-0 this season and are two third likely to be within the spread this afternoon.
Pick 1: Astros Jeremy Pena to go Over/Under – he will go Over hits 1.5 at +180
Pena has a double, two home runs and a walk, and is hitting at .317 – so the odds of a decent payout on him going over are worth thinking of backing.
Pick 2: Royals Prop Over/Under – MJ Melendez to go Over 0.5 at (-145)
Menendez is on a seven-game hitting streak and there is no reason to believe he will not back that up and make it eight in a row, so while the odds are low, the chances are high.
