The Heat go into their NBA Play-In Tournament against the Bulls tonight in the Eastern Conference with the winner becoming the No. 8 seed and advance to face the Boston Celtics.
The Heat are fresh off a narrow 104-105 loss to the 76ers and almost more importantly lost Jimmy Butler to a seemingly serious knee injury in the first quarter of the game.
The Bulls are fresh off a 131-116 win over the Hawks.
Miami will not be confident after blowing a 14-point lead in their loss to Philadelphia while the Bulls will be full of energy and optimism, meaning the underdog has a good chance of prevailing tonight.
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Breakdown: A Tale of Two Teams
Team Heat Bulls Record 46-36-0 39-43-0 O/U Record 35-37-0 43-37-0 Spread Record 41-40-2 42-40-1 Injuries Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier Alex Caruso, Zach Lavine, Patrick Williams Key players to watch Bam Adebayo Demar DeRozan - Time: 7 p.m. PM ET
- Venue: Kaseya Center – Miami, Florida
- Live Stream: ESPN, FUBO
The head-to-head record between the two teams over the past five years shows the Heat leading the Bulls 9-6, with their last six games being evenly split 3-3 by the home team triumphing each time. This is why Miami are tipped as the slight favorites but without key players and low on confidence they are there for the taking.
The Heat has lost four times in their last 11 including a two-pointer to the Pacers on April 7 and Wednesday’s one-point loss to the 76ers.
The Bulls are 5-5 from their last ten games but are three-from-four going into this encounter.
Two of their most recent losses came at the expense of the high-flying Knicks team.
Apart from their one-pointy loss to New York on ASpril 14, their last four losses have been blow-outs, which could spell bad news if Miami hits a strong lead and does not chuck it away like they did against Philadelphia.
Our Picks:
Heats vs Bulls – Heat go into game against Bulls as slight favorites but we pick Chicago
The Heat start as the MoneyLine favorites -128 while Bulls can be had at +108.
Some key statistics include the Bulls have won 3 of their last five games as the underdog and are going 3-5 in their last five away from home.
60% of the Bulls last 10 games has seen Chicago hit the over. Much of the Heat’s play will come through Bam Adebayo who in the absence of the injured Jimmy Butler will have to play out of his sneakers. In the 72 games he has played this season he has posted more than 20.5 points 33 times.
The Heat will also miss Terry Rozier and these key injuries could prove the difference between advancement or disappointment.
He is also a renowned player on the rebound exceeding 11.5 in 25 of the 72 games he has played. He is also handy with assists going at more than 4.5 in 25 games this campaign.
Heat point guard Tyler Herro has also been in good form resh off scoring 25 points in the team’s one-point loss to the 76ers last out.
For the Bulls small forward DeMar DeRozan will be crucial in helping his team over the line, averaging 24 points across 79 games. He also has 1.1 steals, 4.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists going into this game.
Heat ATS: The Heat are 35-12 as favorites this season and are 6-3-1 against the spread in their past ten games.
Bulls ATS: The Bulls are 6-4 against the spread in their past 10 games and 26-23 ATS as the underdog. Chicago is 23-18 ATS on the road this season and 43-40 overall.
Pick 1: Heat’s Bam Adebayo to go over 4.5 Assists prop (+105)
Adebayo has a decent record against the Bulls racking up an extra 0.4 Over the Prop (4.5). This is his only stat that is beyond the over on all his prop bets with his scoring average against Chicago of 20 0.5 less than his prop, and his rebounds per game against the Bulls is 1.7 fewer than his prop for this encounter.
Pick 2: Pick Chicago to win outright at +1.5
Chicago should buck the sportsbook aggregator trend and win by 1.5 points in what will be a season definer. Back Chicago as injuries to key players Butler and Rozier could hit the Heat hard.
