What is Public Betting?

Representing the vast majority of sports bettors, understanding how the public tends to bet is critical to finding long-term success.

This page is all about the ins and outs of public money betting, including understanding how it works on a basic level, how to use betting splits to know where the professional bettors are putting their money, and some helpful tips to give yourself a head start.

And remember, getting into sports betting should be a slow and enjoyable process. If this page is a bit beyond your expertise right now, don’t worry, we have plenty of other pages on beginner sports betting concepts, including how to read odds and how to manage your bankroll.

How Does Public Betting Work?

Public sports betting refers to the collective wagers placed by the majority of casual sports bettors on a given match. In essence, it’s where the crowd is putting their money.

To illustrate this, let’s consider an NFL matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the New York Giants. The sportsbooks favor the Giants by 1.5 points (-1.5). However, an interesting trend emerges: despite being the underdog, the Seahawks are attracting 70% of the public money, making them the public betting favorite.

It’s crucial to recognize that while following the betting public may yield some wins, relying solely on the consensus can lead to losses in the long run. After all, if everyone won all the time, sportsbooks would struggle to stay in business.

How to Read Public Betting Odds

Public betting odds, denoted in the standard American format (+110, -200, etc.), are no different from other forms of betting odds. American odds use the plus (+) sign for underdogs and the minus (-) sign for favorites.

The number displayed indicates the amount you would earn on a $100 bet for the underdogs or the amount you need to wager to win $100 for the favorites. This format simplifies understanding and facilitates easy comparison of odds across different sports and events.

How Do Public Betting Trends Affect the Odds?

At Overtime Heroics, we understand public betting trends can significantly influence the odds for a given sports matchup. Sportsbooks aim for an even distribution of bets on both sides of a game, ideally close to 50/50.

This balanced betting action ensures that sportsbooks collect a profit regardless of the game’s outcome, thanks to the vigorish (vig), which is the commission the sportsbook takes from each wager.

When the public overwhelmingly supports one team, sportsbooks may adjust the point spread or odds to encourage more bets on the other side to even out the action. This way, they’ll make a profit regardless of the result.

For example, consider an NBA public betting game where the Los Angeles Lakers are heavily favored. If a flood of public bets pours in on the Lakers in NBA public betting, the sportsbook might increase their opponent’s point spread to attract more bets on the underdog.

Why are Favorites Most Likely to Win?

Favorites in sports betting typically emerge due to several key factors. First, they often boast higher talent levels or more skill than their opponents, giving them an edge. Their history of consistent victories and strong performance plays a role in their favored status.

Moreover, sportsbooks analyze specific matchups within the game. For instance, a football team with a top-notch defense facing an inexperienced quarterback on the opposing side could easily become the favorite. Injury status also plays a pivotal role. The presence or absence of key players greatly influences a team’s favoritism.

However, it’s essential to remember that being the favorite doesn’t guarantee a win. Upsets will always occur, adding the unpredictability to sports betting that makes it so exciting..

Why are Underdogs Less Likely to Win?

Underdogs in sports betting typically face an uphill battle. They’re seen as having less talent, skill, or a weaker team than the opposition they’re facing based on various factors.

Historical performance is a key consideration. Teams or players with a track record of losses or inconsistency are often labeled as underdogs.

Matchup challenges are another factor. Underdogs may confront unfavorable matchups against opponents with superior attributes or strategies. Injuries can also weigh heavily on the odds. Underdogs with injured starters or limited rosters are more likely to be considered underdogs.

While underdogs face greater odds and challenges, they can offer valuable betting opportunities. Knowledgeable bettors who conduct thorough research may find situations where underdogs have a realistic chance of winning, making them an appealing choice for those seeking higher potential returns.

Which Stats are Useful for Public Betting?

If you’re serious about making a profit by betting on sports, you’ll need to learn how to use data to maximize your potential by tracking public bets. Whether it’s advanced stats and player tracking data that helps you find underdogs with a hidden advantage, or how money is moving through sportsbooks, analytics are always going to be your friend.

In the following sections we’ll be talking about two stats that are essential for public betting, betting percentages and betting splits.

What are Betting Percentages?

Public betting percentages and money percentages refer to the proportion of wagers placed on a particular outcome in sports betting, irrespective of the dollar amounts involved. For instance, if 60% of all bets are in favor of the Dallas Cowboys winning an NFL game, the Cowboys betting percentage is 60%.

However, it’s essential to note that public betting percentages alone may not provide a complete picture. The amount of money wagered on each side can differ significantly, even if the betting percentages are close. This is where betting splits come into play.

What are Betting Splits?

Betting splits encompass the distinction between the total number of bets and the total sum of money bet on a specific outcome in a game. These splits reveal where professional bettors, often referred to as “sharps,” are directing their funds.

A positive public betting percentage split occurs when a higher percentage of the total money is placed on one side compared to the total number of bets. This suggests that sharps are investing a proportionally larger sum on that particular result compared to the general public.

Conversely, a negative split indicates that a significant number of casual bettors are backing one side, keeping the betting percentage high but the total money amount relatively low.

Analyzing both betting percentages and splits can provide valuable insights into the public betting trends and professional bettors perceive a particular game.

How Do You Know If You Should Fade the Public?

Fading the public in sports betting means going against the betting consensus by wagering on the side with fewer bets or less money invested. Whether or not you should fade the public depends on your individual analysis and betting strategy.

Pros of Fading the Public:

• Contrarian Betting: Fading the public can be profitable when the betting public is overly influenced by popular teams or recent performances. It allows you to take advantage of situations where the public perception is skewed.
• Value Betting: When the public heavily favors one side, oddsmakers may adjust the lines to balance the action. Fading the public can provide better odds and higher potential payouts.

Cons of Fading the Public:

• Risk of Going Against Winners: The public isn’t always wrong. Fading the public means betting against a side that is popular for a reason—because they often win.
• Not Always Profitable: Fading the public should be based on solid reasoning, not just a contrarian approach. Blindly fading the public can lead to losses if there’s no valid rationale.

In essence, fading the public is a tool in a sports bettor’s arsenal, but it should be used judiciously and backed by thorough research and analysis.

Public Betting Examples in Sports Betting

Now that we understand the basics of public vs sharp money betting and how betting percentages and splits work, it’s time to look at some real world examples across America’s most popular sports.

Think about what sports you’re likely to wager on, and look at the examples that are relevant to your betting experience.

NFL

In an NFL Monday Night Football showdown, let’s say the New York Giants are the underdogs, but 70% of the total money wagered is on them to cover the spread according to NFL public betting. This situation suggests that the NFL betting public betting is heavily favoring the Giants to perform better than expected, possibly due to factors like recent performance or public sentiment.

NBA

Imagine a thrilling NBA Christmas Day game where the Golden State Warriors are playing the Los Angeles Lakers. While the Warriors have received 60% of the total money bet, only 40% of the total bets are placed on them. This indicates that sharp bettors are likely favoring Golden State, making them a solid choice despite the NBA betting public leaning towards LA.

MLB

In a high-stakes World Series matchup, the Houston Astros are the overwhelming MLB public betting favorite over the Cincinnati Reds, with an astounding 80% of the total money bet on them. The MLB betting public perceives Houston as the clear winner, and this MLB public betting percentage reflects their strong support.

NHL

Picture a scenario where a top NHL team like the Vegas Golden Knights are returning from a lengthy road trip to face an underdog Montreal Canadians team who are well-rested. The NHL betting public splits reveal that the majority of money is being placed on Montreal. This suggests that sharp bettors, who closely track team performance and situational factors, see value in the underdog when it comes to NHL public betting.

Soccer

In a soccer match where weather conditions play a pivotal role, the public places a higher proportion of bets on the favorite. However, sharp bettors, who have been monitoring the weather forecasts and anticipate a muddy, challenging game, are more inclined to bet on a draw, recognizing it as the most likely outcome given the conditions.

College Football

In a heated matchup between Alabama and Auburn, the college football public betting spread suggests a fairly close game. However, sharp bettors have taken a keen interest in this game. The college football betting public believe that a star player for Alabama, who has recently returned to full health, will lead to a larger blowout than what the spread indicates. Despite the college football public betting’s expectations of a close game, the sharps are leaning towards Alabama covering the spread convincingly.

College Basketball

Consider an epic college basketball game featuring UNC and Duke. While the NCAA basketball public betting seems to be favoring the underdog UNC due to a high betting percentage on their side, a closer look at the handle percentage reveals a different story. The handle percentage is notably lower, indicating that college basketball public betting sharps are not fully endorsing the idea of UNC upsetting Duke.

Public Betting Tips

So, you have the public betting definitions down, got to look at a couple of examples, and are ready to get started in your betting journey. Not so fast! Before you head out, take a look at these two essential tips for public bets that will help you avoid risk and give you more profit-making opportunities in the long run.

Don’t Blindly Follow the Consensus

Basing your bets solely on the consensus is a strategy that’s unlikely to yield consistent profits. While the public can certainly be on the mark from time to time, relying on the consensus exclusively isn’t a sustainable approach.

To achieve long-term success in sports betting, you’ll need to be discerning and occasionally choose to fade the public when the situation warrants it. Sharps and professionals often diverge from the consensus, making it essential to have a well-thought-out betting strategy that doesn’t blindly follow the crowd.

Check the Betting Percentage When Possible

Whenever the opportunity arises, it’s crucial to check the betting percentage or handle percentage data. These insights provide valuable information about the flow of money in a particular game compared to how the public has bet.

A low betting percentage coupled with a high hold percentage can be indicative of professional bettors putting substantial sums on a specific outcome, contrary to the general public’s sentiment. By utilizing this data, you gain a more comprehensive understanding of where the sharps are placing their wagers, helping you to make informed betting decisions.