Draft: Final Mock Before the 2019 Season

From the number one draft spot – me!

1.1 Alvin Kamara: Of the Big 3.5 running backs who have been going in the first four draft picks, I think Kamara is the safest. It’s burned into our brains at this point, but I’ll say it again: you won’t win your fantasy league in the first round, but you can certainly lose it. Don’t get cute. Get Alvin!

2.12 Leonard Fournette: The man is healthy, and when he’s healthy the Jaguars feed him. He took nearly every snap with Nick Foles in the last preseason game and was targeted three times. If he plays 16 games, he is locked-in RB1.

3.1 Brandin Cooks: I’ve been getting more and more Cooks as we get closer to the start of the season. I think the Rams defense takes a step back, which gives McVay even more opportunity and necessity to air it out. Cooks is somehow only 25 years old and is entering his second year with this offense. I don’t love him as my WR1, but I had to go receiver here and I am staying away from Antonio Brown in the third round.

Still on the draft board: Aaron Jones, Antonio Brown, Devonta Freeman, Adam Thielen

4.12 Tyler Lockett: I’ve come around big time on Lockett as well. He’s the de factor number one option for Russell Wilson, who’s top target typically gets at least one hundred targets in a season. His efficiency will regress, but an increase in volume will more than makeup for it.

5.1 Tevin Coleman: He’s the starting running back for Kyle Shanahan, which makes me more than happy to shove him in my flex spot. Matt Breida may overtake him at some point in the year, but Coleman’s first four weeks are going to make anyone who spends a fifth-round pick on him very, very happy.

Still on the draft board: Miles Sanders (eek), Cooper Kupp, Tyler Boyd, Sony Michel (the reports out of New England since this draft make me regret not taking Michel. He’s looking phenomenal).

6.12 Christian Kirk: If I don’t leave a draft without at least one Arizona Cardinal, I’m extremely disappointed in myself. Kirk was excellent last year despite being complicit in the worst NFL offense in thirty years. A late-season injury is keeping his hype low. He’s played with Kyler in the Kingsbury offense before and he makes me feel a lot better about my WR depth.

7.1 – Sammy Watkins: Now we begin the middle rounds, where I kind of hate every player and wish I could trade down for a handful of flier picks. Watkins was great when healthy last year and Tyreek Hill will always demand double coverage. He’s a talented, young receiver in Andy Reid‘s offense with no defense to speak of. Big time upside, and that’s all I care about in the draft from here on out.

Still on the draft board: Garbage, mostly, and Latavius Murray.

8.12 Sterling Shepard: He’ll see somewhere in the vicinity of 100 targets from Eli Manning or his hastily constructed clone. If my other receivers pop off then by the law of averages by running back fliers won’t. I’d be more than happy to package him after four weeks (before Golden Tate returns) and buy-low on an upside running back.

9.1 Justin Jackson: I want to leave every draft with at least three young running backs with tremendous upside. Jackson is at the top of that list because I doubt Melvin Gordon plays 16 games and Jackson is built for the feature back role, while Austin Ekeler will always be Austin Ekeler.

Still on the draft board: Kyler Murray, Royce Freeman, Lesean McCoy

10.12 Josh Gordon: To round out my boom or bust wide receiver core, I’m planting my flag firmly on the Gordon hype train. He’s a supreme talent who flourished when Rob Gronkowski was absent last year. Second-year in a challenging offense to learn and Tom Brady coaching him up every step of the way. That makes four bench wide receivers, and I would bet at least one of them is top-24 by the end of the year. Unfortunately, this is the latest I’ll probably ever be able to get Gordon.

11.1 Lamar Jackson: I, as you can probably expect, am a late-round Quarterback kind of fantasy player. His rushing floor is intriguing and if he improves at all as a passer, he’ll be top eight minimum with top-three upside. All in.

NOT on the draft board: Justice Hill. He went right before my Gordon pick. He’s the second young RB I’m trying to get a hold of at the end of drafts.

12.12 Malcolm Brown: McVay says he’s the backup to Todd Gurley. Gurley is one giant question mark who’s going to be limited or out for a large percentage of the season. We watched C.J. Anderson thrive off of Domino’s and McVay’s scheme last year and they actually invested in Brown.

13.1 Jordan Reed: I’m also a late-round TE kind of guy. Since this pick, Reed suffered a concussion and Jay Gruden announced Case Keenum will start the season at QB for the Redskins. Now, I’m fully pivoting to Delanie Walker or Darren Waller.

Overall: Very happy, not ecstatic.

From the two-spot, Ryan Gosling.

1.2 Saquan Barkley: My pearl-clutching fear of the New York Giants imminent implosion wanes with each passing day. Daniel Jones looks… encouraging, at least enough to agree with Ryan that Saquan should be taken ahead of CMC, DJ, and Zeke.

2.11 Keenan Allen: The Derwin James injury, while terrible for fans of football, is likely a boost to Allen. The Chargers defense is wrecked without him, which in turn will result in more passing opportunities. Rivers is as excellent as ever, but there’s just something boring about Allen this year. Maybe because with the return of Hunter Henry, his touchdowns aren’t going up.

3.2 Aaron Jones: Does top-5 positional upside in the third round sounds good to you? It sounds wonderful to me. Excellent pick.

4.11 Robert Woods: Woods may match Keenan Allen’s production and you get to take him home a whole two rounds later. He’s a stud and is even better value at this point that Brandin Cooks.

5.2 Miles Sanders: I hate Philadelphia. The city, the sports, the smell, but most of all I hate the outlook for fantasy football. Carson Wentz is set up for a tremendous season. He’s in possession of a great coaching staff, a top-tier offensive line, two stud tight ends, three veteran wide receivers and another promising rookie, and four rostered running backs, including Sanders, Darren Sproles, and Jordan Howard. Sanders will have some awesome games, and he will disappear entirely from others. The fifth is way too early for this level of projected annoyance.

6.11 Robby Anderson: Sam Darnold is looking mighty fine so far this preseason. He is likely a franchise QB. He and Anderson built a strong rapport during the final stretch of 2018 when Darnold was a top-five QB. A lot of potential with a reasonable pick investment,

7.2 Latavious Murray: Murray is the most valuable handcuff this year, with standalone value of his own. That’s all built into his seventh-round cost. I’m a fan.

8.11 Carson Wentz: See Miles Sanders. Love, LOVE this value.

9.2 D.K. Metcalf: This weekend, Metcalf has a procedure done on his knee. Pete Carroll is an optimistic liar. If he’s on the field Week 1, he has an easy path to start, as David Moore also fell victim to injury. If he’s not, I doubt his rookie season really takes off.

10.11 Justice Hill: Ryan sniped me here. Hill looks electric every time he touches the ball, and no one knows if Mark Ingram is any good at age 29. The highest-drafted Ravens running back has lost the starting job for three years in a row. I bet the streak continues.

11.2 Alexander Mattison: One of my other favorite late-round running backs. Minnesota wants to run and they want to keep the ball on the ground. Mattison will get his chances, and he’s the backup to a guy who has yet to play a full season.

12.11 Kyle Rudolph: No. He’s old, he’s boring, and he has to steal targets from Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook, who is an excellent passing threat out of the backfield. The Vikings also went out and drafted Irv Smith Jr., a highly touted Tight End prospect. If you want to say, well the Vikings just paid him, I’d like you to go ask Cameron Brate if that means anything.

13.2 Paris Campbell: He’s injured, he’s a rookie, and he just lost Andrew Luck. Another offense loaded with veteran weapons, this is a hard pass for me.

Overall: Ryan can’t be mad here. He packaged together a lot of proven commodities and upside players. While I don’t love every pick, I do love the construction. And who knows, one or two of my opinions may even be wrong.

Drafting fifth overall is Rob.

1.5 Deandre Hopkins: He is the most talented receiver in the league and he gets targeted by one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the league. A pick that won’t lose you the league, especially in any level of PPR as Hopkins is more of a possession receiver than a YAC one.

2.8 Travis Kelce: Kelce is due for regression after he posted a career year and his quarterback posted a historical one. He is a top-five tight end this year if he’s healthy, but I’m not convinced he can distance himself from the other top tight ends to be worth this high of a pick anymore. I can’t take him with Kerryon Johnson and Fournette still on the board.

3.5 Devonta Freeman: The offensive line is healthy, the offense is loaded with weapons that demand attention, and the defense is looking to bounceback in a big way.

4.8 Kenny Golladay: Matt Patricia wants to run the football and run it a lot. They want to control the clock, play slow, and wear down defenses. Regardless of the merit of that strategy, Golladay will have to do a lot with limited targets to crack WR2 territory. On the bright side, Matthew Stafford won’t have a fractured back this year.

5.5 Deshaun Watson: This is my personal QB1 for the year. I refuse to draft him because I have pledged to uphold late-round QB until death do us part, but he’s very attractive in the fifth round. Rob’s Hopkins/Watson stack is prepared to win weeks all by itself.

6.8 Tarik Cohen: Obviously Cohen gets a bump in any PPR formats, but Matt Nagy wants to reduce Cohen’s touches. They brought in David Montgomery, who is looking like a veritable stud, and his production is still tied to Mitch Trubisky.

7.5 Allen Robinson: He’s the best option for Trubisky in the passing game. The impending Anthony Miller breakout concerns me for Robinson’s ceiling, but he’s been an extremely successful with Blake Bortles before, so I don’t hate him in the seventh.

8.8 Ronald Jones: Stay away from the Tampa Bay backfield at all costs. Yes, Bruce Arians gave us David Johnson, but there are four running backs currently rostered and we don’t know if a single one of them has any talent whatsoever. If I’m Bruce, I throw the ball on every single down.

9.5 Lesean McCoy: He’s the Week 1 starter for what might be a decent Bills team, and he costs essentially nothing. This could be a great pick, especially the beginning of the season.

10.8 Devin Singletary: If McCoy doesn’t pan out, Singletary likely will. He’s another of my favorite RB youngsters and I wish he made it back to me.

11.5 Tyrell Willaims: Antonio Brown demands double coverage and triple attention, allowing Williams to get all sorts of open. However, Derek Carr doesn’t throw the ball more than three or four yards, which is an extremely poor fit for William’s limited skillset (and also Brown’s). He could pan out on volume and is a fine late-round flier for a roster that is a little light on WR upside.

12.8 Michael Gallup: I have a confession, and I’d like you all to be the first to hear it. I am in love. Painfully, head-over-heels, heart bursting at the seams in love with the Dallas Cowboys offense this year. Gallup has a strong pedigree and a great training camp. Amari Cooper is dealing with a foot injury that may hamper or sideline him at various points in the season. Gallup in the 12th is stealing.

13.5 Darwin Thompson: Well, no soul can get him this late any more. Everybody wants the guy they think will end up as the Kansas City starting RB by season’s end, myself included.

Overall: Look, I don’t love this team’s draft. The scaffolding is there that with a few trades, a little luck, and some shrewd waiver wire manoeuvres could jostle for a playoff spot.

Finally, to draft 7th overall… Joooooooeeeee.

1.7 Nick Chubb: Chubb is an impressive specimen to watch. He consistently rips big gains and has zero competition for at least half of the season. I worry a bit about the Browns’ offensive line and Chubb isn’t involved in the passing game at all. The Browns can spread the ball around, but Chubb is the guy in the backfield, and he will not disappoint.

2.6 Juju Smith-Schuster: The Steelers vacated close to 300 targets this offseason. I can’t see Juju getting many more than last year, as I imagine Big Ben won’t throw close to 700 times. But Juju will remain top ten in targets, without a doubt. I don’t think he has the potential to be the wide receiver one, but he’ll almost without a doubt be a WR1.

3.7 Marlon Mack: Mack, it turns out, is also in love with a little thing called game script. When the Colts get out to a lead, Mack eats defenses alive. When they trail, Nyheim Hines trots out and dominates. With the Andrew Luck retirement, the Colts projected win total fell from 9.5 to 6.5. Pencil in disappointment when drafting Mack this high.

4.6 Chris Godwin: Mike Evans, my favourite wideout this coming season, says he and Godwin are fighting for the number one spot in the Tampa Bay passing game. Everyone raves about his talent, the Bucs’ defense will be atrocious, and did I mention I’ve been cheating on the Cowboys with Bruce Arians? This is the next Juju and this is cheaper than S.S. was last year.

5.7 Lamar Miller: I loved him prior to this weekend. One of the most consistent backs of the last few years. But he tore his ACL and is done for the year. I’m comfortable taking Duke Johnson this high though unless the Texans make a move.

6.6 Jarvis Landry: Another mouth to feed on a prolific offense. He’ll move back into the slot and have decent PPR days. However, Odell Beckham has missed more games in the last three seasons than any other top wideout. There’s potential for Landry to step into more targets if this trend continues, but he was just not very good as the number one last year. Hard pass.

7.7 Curtis Samuel: Everybody loves Samuel this offseason. It’s warranted, he’s a talented, athletic wideout who’ll be the number two receiver for Cam Newton. Great value, even if I still like D.J. Moore better.

8.6 Kalen Ballage: If anyone has watched the Miami offensive line this preseason, then you’re avoiding drafting Ballage, or Kenyon Drake (who’s out of a walking boot). Not a chance do I take Ballage this high, which means I’m not getting him at all.

9.7 Corey Davis: The guy had over 30% target share last year and couldn’t get it done. It’s not his fault, his quarterback either couldn’t feel his fingers or was Blaine Gabbert. But they added A.J. Brown and Mike Humphries. They want to run the ball a lot, and they are probably going to be bottom ten or five in total plays run. Pass.

10.6 Duke Johnson: See Lamar Miller. Johnson is now a fifth round pick.

11.7 Delanie Walker: The only Titan I like. He’s a proven commodity and the Titans love utilizing their tight ends in the passing game and red zone. One of my top late-round TE targets.

12.6 Dak Prescott: I love Dak. I worry a little about his ceiling if the defense is as good as projected, but in the twelfth round, I adore this pick.

13.7 Mitch Trubisky: I’ve soured on Mitch recently, but he has tremendous upside. The real problem with this pick is that you already have a quarterback on the roster. Always draft upside you can actually use in one QB leagues. Never double-dip.

Overall: Unfortunately, this is my least favorite team so far. It’s not horrible, Joe just should’ve consulted me in the middle rounds. Live and learn, boys, live and learn.

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