JD Martinez and His Opt Out Clause

The Success for Martinez

Martinez’s two seasons in Boston have been nothing short of dominant. He has hit .317/.392/.600 with 78 homers since signing with Red Sox in February of 2018. Some thought he might regress due to the dimensions of Fenway Park not catering to his big opposite field power. However, Martinez has excelled at home. In 2018, Martinez hit .334/.405/.683 at home with 26 homers (nine more than he hit on the road). His home numbers in 2019 aren’t as stellar as they were in 2018. However, he has still put up a .902 OPS and 17 homers at Fenway thus far.

In addition to his success at home, Martinez was a key contributor to Boston’s world championship in 2018, contributing a .300/.403/.520 line with three homers and 14 RBI during the postseason. Martinez has enjoyed plenty of success in Boston and is a key piece for the team. He could still be a key piece moving forward.

The Case to Opt In

When the 2017 offseason started, Martinez was the prize slugger on the market. He and his agent, Scott Boras, felt that he was worth over $200 million. As the offseason wore on, it was clear that there were not a ton of suitors for his services due in part to his asking price. Additionally, Martinez has an injury history, and is a defensive liability. Over his career, he has been worth -43 defensive runs saved. It also has not gone much better in his time with Boston. He has been worth -11 DRS since he started with the Red Sox in 2018. He has been used sparingly in the outfield (only 93 games), and it should be noted his market will likely be exclusively American League teams should he opt out.

The Case to Opt Out

When Martinez signed his contract with Red Sox, there weren’t really any other suitors. However, Martinez’s stint with Boston has proven that even if he is defensively challenged, he can contribute plenty. His bat is still very much alive and doesn’t show signs of slowing down. He posted a 6.4 bWAR in 150 games in 2018 and a 3.2 bWAR through 135 games in 2019. Additionally, he has maintained a high level of power while cutting his strikeout rate down from 26.2% in 2017 to a career-low 20.2% in 2019. Should Martinez opt out, he would be in line for a big pay raise, even if he is limited to just being a designated hitter.

Could JD Test Free Agency?

While there have been very few signs that show a desire to leave Boston, Martinez is expected to have a high asking price. This could create a salary problem for the Red Sox. Mookie Betts is expected to hit free agency after the 2020 season. He will be demanding a lot of money, as he seems to be looking for top dollar. Should Martinez opt out, the Red Sox would have to shell out a ton of money to retain him. This would make it very hard for them to retain or extend the younger, former MVP, Betts. Even though there isn’t much buzz surrounding if Martinez will test free agency, it wouldn’t be all too surprising if he opts and tests the open market. He is an extremely attractive free agent target, especially for American League teams.

It is also worth noting that the Red Sox recently fired general manager Dave Dombrowski, who signed JD Martinez when he was with the Tigers. He also signed Martinez to his current deal with Boston. With Dombrowski gone, Martinez could be influenced to leave Boston should Dombrowski get hired by another organization.

Verdict for JD Martinez

Considering his performance over the past two seasons, it is very hard to envision Martinez opting into the last three years of his contract. That doesn’t necessarily mean he will leave the Red Sox and test free agency. He could very easily get a salary boost either in Boston or for another team. Considering that Yoenis Céspedes was able to get four years and $110-million after a far less stellar performance, expect Martinez to opt out and receive somewhere between three years and $85-million, and five years and $145-million. If he does not take the opt out, he does still have a chance to opt out again after next season.

Author Twitter: @Mathias_A_K

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