UFC 250: Neil Magny vs Anthony Rocco Martin Preview

Magny Background

Magny (22-7) comes into the contest following what most believe to be his best performance in the UFC to date.  Right before the lockdown began, he dismantled Li Jingliang and he looked like a world-beater in doing so.  That sort of performance has been the story of Magny’s career though.  For the good and bad.  Magny, although 4-2 in his last 6, has only put three wins together once since 2015.  He has put on incredible displays like the one against Jingliang, but hasn’t quite been able to replicate those performances consistently.

For record, Magny went on a 7-fight win streak, had two Performance of the Night victories and then lost to Maia.  He then rebounded with a three-fight win streak against Erick Silva, Kelvin Gastelum and Hector Lombard, then lost via TKO to Lorenz Larkin.  Magny turned it around with a big win over Johny Hendricks, then got submitted by RDA in his next fight.  He followed that up with a win over Carlos Condit, then knocked Craig White out in the first round.  That was followed by a huge KO loss to Santiage Pinzibnibbio a few months later.

The fact that Magny has wins over the likes of Gastelum, Lombard, Hendricks and Condit, a who’s who of former contenders, champions etc. is a reminder as to how good Magny is.  On his day, Magny looks like a legitimate title threat, but he has lacked the consistency it takes to make a run for the belt.  That said, Magny looked incredible in his last outing and if he can reproduce that against Martin, he’ll be in line for another big fight.

Martin Background

Martin (17-5) has had a somewhat similar run of things over the last several years.  In 2018, he went on a tear.  He won four straight against Keita Nakamura, Ryan LaFlare, Jake Matthews and Serigo Moraes.  While those names aren’t quite as reputable as Magny’s former opponents, it was still an incredibly impressive year for Martin.  But, when he got his first real test against Demain Maia however, he lost via majority decision. 

He’s since bounced back with an impressive victory over Ramazan Emeev in November of last year.  In Russia to boot.  Prior to that, Martin has made a real name for himself as a submission specialist.  He has 9 professional submissions, the most impressive coming most recently against Jake Matthews.  Matthews ia a high-level BJJ black-belt and Martin finished him via Anaconda choke.  One of the smoothest submissions you’ll ever see. 

Martin has also elevated his striking capabilities.  He’s got better with every one of his last fights and seems to be an incredibly smart and prepared.  His camp has got him more organized and focused. It appears that they really study their opponents’ weaknesses before going to battle.  However, this upcoming bout is arguably Martin’s toughest test.     

Magny Breakdown

In terms of cardio, there are few, if any welterweights that can keep up with Magny. He puts a pace on you from the first bell to the last, and you’re likely going to have to knock him out to slow him down.  He uses his striking primarily but mixes up the takedowns with the striking very well.

Along with his cardio, he’s one of the longest Welterweights, at 6”3 with a whopping 80” reach.  Magny would be a big Light-Heavyweight and ironically, he has a similar frame to that of the current LHW king, Jon Jones.  He uses it perfectly, keeping his opponents at the very end of his shots and not allowing them to close the distance.  A perfect example was his last fight, against the self-proclaimed “Violenceweight” champion, Li Jingliang.  Li was constantly looking for the takedown and big power shots, but Magny, as ever, used his frame perfectly.

His length makes it incredibly difficult to clasp the hands for a double leg and despite his talent of fighting at range, he’s also shown an improved clinch game.  An area where he’s shown the most weakness and vulnerability in the past.  The elite grapplers tend to cause Magny serious problems in the clinch and on the ground, however in his last fight the clinch work was outstanding.  Implementing McGregor style shoulder strikes, knees, and level changes kept Li from utilizing any of his short power shots.

The one element that Magny has got to be cautious about is his ground game.  Magny has lost 4 times via submission and Martin has 9 wins via submission across his career.  Magny shouldn’t test that, despite his improvements in the clinch/on the ground.  His clear path to victory is keeping things standing where he has a monumental advantage. 

Martin Breakdown

It’s safe to say that you wouldn’t be offending anyone by saying that Martin has relied heavily on decision and submission victories in the past.  In a career that spans over the course of a decade, Martin has just ONE KO finish.  A beautiful head kick KO of Ryan LaFlare in 2018 all the same, but that’s a rare feat over a 22-fight-career.  However, that looks to have changed. 

On the feet, Martin has been evolving slowly over the years into a very competent striker.  While he doesn’t possess the best hands, as BJJ guys tend not to, he has very useful kicks.  The leg kicks are essential to slow Magny down and get inside into range.  This will be a massive factor in the fight.  He can throw them without the fear of being taken down as its where he would prefer to be anyway.  

Whilst not the flashiest of kickers, or frequent, they’ve became a key part of Rocco’s success on the feet.  Slowing down his opponents and dictating where he wants them to go. It’s fair to say we will learn a lot about how much Anthony Rocco Martin has developed his striking, without ever being poor, he’s up against a fantastic volume striker in Magny.

Additionally, with Martin’s improvements over the last couple of years, he’s highlighted his fight IQ.  He’s done whatever necessary to win fights.  Martin has been in the UFC since 2014 and that’s a telling statistic.  He’s found a way beat people down without relying on finishing his opponents.  That is often an overlooked trait, but to win consistently on the judge’s scorecards is more difficult than finishing people nowadays.

Although he’s much smaller than Magny, he has had a lot of success most recently when attacking the legs.  That is always a good strategy against a taller fighter.  He needs to utilize a similar game plan coming into this fight. If he can utilize those kicks to stunt Magny’s movement, that’ll go a long way in closing the distance.  With the aim to bring Magny’s fluidity to a grinding halt. 

It goes without saying that Martin is also a legitimate BJJ blackbelt.  If he can get the fight to the ground, he holds a massive advantage.  Particularly as Magny has suffered at the hands of BJJ practitioners in the past. 

Fight Breakdown

Despite Martin’s vast improvements, this looks like a very tough matchup for him on paper.  Particularly after the show that Magny put on in his last performance.  Magny’s length and style doesn’t suit Martin.  If Magny uses his reach and length the same way he did in his last fight, this could be a nightmare stylistic battle for Martin. 

Martin used to fight at Lightweight, so fighting one of the biggest Welterweights in the UFC just seems like too big of a hurdle to jump.  Secondly, Magny is someone that wins almost every time he isn’t stopped.  While Magny has been finished a number of times, it’s been against elite grapplers and/or strikers that have put him away.  If this were to go the distance, there’s every chance that Martin takes a lot of punishment and may get stopped later on.

That is not to say that Martin is a total underdog with no shot.  As previously mentioned, Martin is as legit a submission threat as it gets.  Although he’s not a dominant takedown artist, if he can capitalize on Magny’s former clinch weaknesses and get him down, he has a real opportunity to submit Magny.  Martin has an array of submission finishes.  More specifically, his read-naked choke and triangle chokes are lethal, and they are two submissions that Magny has fallen victim to in the past. 

Whilst Magny is no slouch on the ground, Martin should be reveling at the chance to grapple in this fight.  His BJJ is streets ahead of Magny’s, and with solid double and single legs, especially from the clinch, he should be confident in landing successful takedowns.  As mentioned, Martin has submissions ranging from Rear Naked Chokes to Kimuras, arm triangles and even a keylock submission.  The way Rocco can efficiently balance his weight and weigh down opponents that won’t give up the sub is an underated part of his game.  He will hang on you, make you carry his full weight until you slip up and let him advance position or go for the submission.

Can Martin take it there and put make things uncomfortable for Magny?  Probably not, but Magny has got to try and avoid hitting the mat at all costs.  If he does, this could be a great opportunity for Magny to get his hands on a top-10 Welterweight contender if things go to plan for him on Saturday.

Pick

Magny via TKO (Round 2)

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