UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo: Prelims Preview:

On Saturday the main event will see former title challenger Jessica Eye take on Cynthia Calvillo in the women’s flyweight division. This underwhelming main event has faced a great deal of backlash by the fans and as much as we should all be grateful to have fights at all. This main event is disappointing, to say the least. With all due respect to the two women involved this fight has more right to be a fight pass prelim headliner than even a featured prelim bout let alone the main event spot. In my opinion, it is the worst headliner in modern UFC history on paper.

However here, I am going to be previewing the six-fight preliminary card. Which involves some stylistically interesting bouts across a range of weight divisions. With each fight, I will be giving my analysis of the match up including an assessment of the routes to victory for both fighters with a soft prediction of which fighter I see the fight leaning in favor of.

Anthony Ivy vs. Christian Aguilera:

Kicking off this card we have two UFC newcomers going head to head in the welterweight division. The winner of this will earn themselves a permanent position on the roster with the loser possibly being cut straight away. Ivy comes in with a record of 8-2 and is the favorite in this matchup against Aguilera (13-6). Ivy definitely looks the better fighter in every way throughout watching tape. That’s not to say this is an easy fight for him or that he doesn’t have holes in his game. However, skillset wise and athletically he definitely appears superior.

Through watching a fairly limited amount of tape the main things that I have noticed are that Ivy likes to shoot for the legs from far out, telegraphing these takedown attempts and on the feet. He has shown some good speed and fairly solid footwork. As for Aguilera, he looks very basic and not explosive at all. For him to win this fight I feel he has to be more efficient with his energy. He can do this by letting the less experienced Ivy work when he doesn’t need to be. This way the skill difference and athletic superiority of Ivy can become nullified and Aguilera will be able to pour it on as the favorite slow down.

With that being said I lean towards Ivy being able to get the win in his UFC debut. As long as he doesn’t exert himself he should outclass Aguilera both on the feet and on the mat. I even see him getting a finish within the first two rounds. The underdog has been finished several times. In addition, I feel that he won’t be able to take the punishment of Ivy if the former Fury FC champion gets some on top of him.

Jordan Griffin vs. Darrick Minner:

In the second fight of the evening, we have a rematch in the featherweight division. Darrick Minner and Jordan Griffin met back in 2018 under the LFA banner. Where Jordan Griffin won the fight by armbar in the second round.

The question is now, what adjustments and improvements have both men made to their games since then. Griffin is a clear favorite in this fight and it appears bettors are banking on their skill levels being the same since the first fight. However, I do not see this match up like that at all. Griffin has shown some horrendous takedown defense and poor fight IQ in his time. However, he somehow finds a way to win fights. Take his last fight for example with Tj Brown. He was taken down at will and looked on a fast track to a dominant loss before he pulled off a modified guillotine from side control on the bottom. Griffin’s style relies heavily on his bottom game and that is a risky game to play.

As for Darrick Minner, he has been submitted many times throughout his career. Including his last time out against the overweight prospect Grant Dawson. He also has a submission loss to Herbert Burns on Dana white’s contender series. This could lead one to believe that he is surely walking into yet another submission loss here on Saturday. However, I feel differently. I feel he knows his back is against the wall here as he is 0-1 in the UFC and fairly lucky to have this fight opportunity and therefore we will see the best Darrick Minner at the apex. I feel he is the superior striker fundamentally to the awkward Griffin. In addition, he will be able to smother and nullify his explosive bottom game with any wresting attacks using the smaller cage to his advantage.

Ryan Benoit vs. Tyson Nam:

Here we have a fun matchup in the flyweight division. It is between Ryan Benoit who returns to this weight class after a short stint up at bantamweight and MMA veteran Tyson Nam. Who despite being 0-2 in the UFC gets another chance at a UFC victory here. Which, in my opinion, he does deserve all things considered. The betting lines are dead even at this point. This is surprising to me as I expected Nam to be a slight favorite. In his two UFC bouts so far, he has looked good having close fights with Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France. Where both times output has let him down. Nam has great footwork with excellent pressure, tons of experience, good durability, and solid boxing.

Ryan Benoit is coming off a loss at bantamweight to Heili Alateng by decision. It was a close fight and Benoit looked good as the smaller man outside of his natural weight class. Now he is back at flyweight he poses some threats to Nam. He has an excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game and is tricky on the feet. I feel he will definitely have to grapple in order to win this fight. However, Nam is a large and strong individual for the 125lb division. Ultimately I see Tyson Nam walking Benoit down and out striking him thoroughly with Benoit telegraphing shots that are easy for Tyson to defend. He may even be able to get a knockout finish depending on how willing Ryan is to trade with him. This is an example of where the smaller cage definitely benefits a specific fighter and in this case, it’s Tyson Nam.

Julia Avila vs. Gina Mazany:

in the fourth fight of the night, we have our first women’s matchup. Here we will see the Julia Avila (7-1) take on Gina Mazany (6-3) in the women’s bantamweight division. Avila comes into this fight as a heavy favorite which I am not surprised at. She had built up an impressive record and looked good in her UFC debut where she defeated Pannie Kianzad at UFC 239. Gina Mazany is coming back after being cut from the UFC back in March of 2019 after going 1-3 in the promotion. In her last outing she picked up a first-round victory in KOTC: Golden Fights back in January.

In my opinion, Avila is the safest pick on the entire card, she just seems to be the superior fighter in every way possible and I don’t see a clear route to victory for her opponent. Ultimately she should be able to get the finish over Mazany.

Charles Rosa vs. Kevin Aguilar:

In the second to last bout of this exciting preliminary card. We head back to the featherweight division. Where we will see two very talented fighters coming off losses go head to head. Charles Rosa is making a quick turn around after his dominant loss to top prospect Bryce Mitchell at UFC 249. However, he didn’t take a great deal of damage in that bout so I have no problem with this. As for Aguilar, he suffered a big TKO defeat to Zubaira Tukhugov back in February.

Stylistically this is a fantastic matchup, Aguilar (17-3) enters as a clear favorite. This was surprising to me as I think this bout is more even than people anticipate. Charles Rosa has a phenomenal grappling game and the way he lost his last fight just shows how good Bryce Mitchell is more than anything else. I do not believe Aguilar has near the top game of Mitchell. I would put the grappling advantage here in Rosa’s favor. However, when it comes to mixing things up. I believe Aguilar is much more accustomed to that than his opponent here. Kevin Aguilar is fundamentally sound on the feet and hasn’t great cardio, Rosa’s stand up has definitely improved as well as his cardio but I don’t see him being able to outlast Aguilar in a high pace fight that takes place in all ranges.

With that being said I do lean towards Rosa taking this one, likely by submission or decision. I don’t believe Aguilar has the power or precision to find a knockout shot early and I don’t think he will be able to dictate the pace like he has to, I believe Rosa will initiate the clinch and work Aguilar from there into chains of submission attempts.

Mariya Agapova vs. Hannah Cifers:

The featured bout of this preliminary card, we have a women’s flyweight bout. Which personally much like the main event, I do not think it is worthy to be in the position it is at all. Hannah Cifers is coming off two losses with the latest being at the hands of Mackenzie Dern on May 30th. Her opponent Mariya Agapova holds an impressive record of 8-1 and is making her UFC debut in this fight. Cifers is small for the strawweight division let alone the flyweight division. This has a terrible matchup for her written all over it.

Much like with Gina Mazany in the Julia Avila fight, I see no clear path to victory for Cifers here. She is tough as nails and has the heart of a lion. However, I feel she will be outclassed and likely smothered in this match up.

We have a great night of fights ahead of us here, I hope you all enjoy.

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