MLB Playoffs: NL Wild Card Preview and Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

The Philadelphia Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi in early June and have turned their season around since. Despite missing 2021 NL MVP Bryce Harper for much of his tenure, Rob Thomson has gone 65-45 and led the Phillies to their first playoff appearance since 2011. They are led by their two aces, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, who match up with anyone in the league. This season, Wheeler had a 2.82 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.06 xFIP, and 3.18 SIERA in 158.0 innings pitched. Aaron Nola had a 3.25 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 2.76 xFIP, and 2.80 SIERA in 205.0 innings.

On offense, the Phillies are also great. They ranked 5th in the NL in wRC+ and 6th in position-player fWAR. Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, and Kyle Schwarber all had great years in 2022. Realmuto, the team"s WAR leader, had a .275/.341/.478 slash line with a 128 wRC+ and 6.5 fWAR. Bryce Harper had a 139 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR despite playing in just 99 games, while Kyle Schwarber led the National League in home runs with 46.

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On the other hand, the Cardinals have a questionable playoff rotation. They lack a true ace, but they have a lot of solid pitching. An argument could be made for any of Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jose Quintana, Jordan Montgomery, and Jack Flaherty to start Game 1. While Wainwright has a ton of playoff experience and a great track record, he had a 7.22 ERA in six September/October starts. Miles Mikolas and Jose Quintana, on the other hand, have finished the season strong (2.38 and 0.81 ERA in Sept/Oct, respectively).

They may lack stars on the mound, but the Cardinals have no shortage of star power in their lineup. They have the two NL MVP favorites in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who have each put up over 7.0 fWAR. Behind them, they have young hitters in Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbar, and Dylan Carlson. They also still have Albert Pujols, who put up a 151 wRC+ on the year, his best mark since 2010. Altogether, they have one of the best offenses in the league as well as an incredible defense behind their pitchers.

Probable Pitchers

Game 1: Zack Wheeler vs Jose Quintana
Game 2: Aaron Nola vs Miles Mikolas
Game 3: Ranger Suarez vs Jordan Montgomery

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies in 2

The Phillies have a major pitching advantage in both Games 1 and 2, and they will ride that to a series sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals. Despite the reputation that they"ve built up over the past few years, their bullpen ranks in the top half of the league in both FIP and K%. It"s still their weakest unit and could be a concern in a close, late-game situation, but their starters should be able to take care of business and limit the number of innings thrown by their bullpen. If the series gets to three games, however, I trust the Cardinals" experience to pull through.

San Diego Padres at New York Mets

The most highly anticipated series of Wild Card weekend, for me, is the Padres heading to Queens to take on the Mets. It took an absolute worst-case scenario for the Mets to play in the Wild Card weekend, but here they are. Their lineup has been fairly mediocre recently, especially since Starling Marte went out with an injury. On top of that, Jacob deGrom has had his worst stretch of the past four years.

At the same time, the Padres" starting pitching has really picked it up in the 2nd half. Although Sean Manaea has been quite disappointing, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove are all worthy of Wild Card starts. Yu Darvish, the Friars" Game 1 starter is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in eight career starts against the Mets. Although many of these starts came against a different-looking Mets team, he also has a 2.68 ERA in his last 20 starts, while averaging over 6.7 innings per start. Behind him, Blake Snell (2.19 ERA in his last 14 starts) and Joe Musgrove (1 ER allowed in his last 20 innings) are both scorching hot.

The Padres are without their superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., but they still have two of the top ten hitters in the league at the top of their lineup with Manny Machado and Juan Soto. Machado, the NL fWAR leader, and a very worthy MVP candidate had a 152 wRC+ this year but has a lackluster playoff resume. In 29 playoff games, Machado has slashed just .200/.250/.383 (66 wRC+) despite making it to the World Series in 2018. On the other hand, Soto had a poor second half after being traded to the Padres in July, but he has an incredible playoff track record that includes a World Series ring in 2019.

For New York, it"s all about pitching right now. Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are perhaps the best 1-2 punch in baseball, and Edwin Diaz had an absolutely incredible season at the back end of the bullpen.

Probable Pitchers

Game 1: Yu Darvish vs Max Scherzer
Game 2: Blake Snell vs Jacob deGrom
Game 3: Joe Musgrove vs Chris Bassitt

Prediction: New York Mets in 2

Although I"m predicting a sweep, I think this will be a very close, hard-fought series between two of the best teams in the National League. New York"s pitching will carry them, as Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are both in prime positions to put up huge games and hand the ball off to Diaz in the 9th. If it goes to a Game 3, remember that Chris Bassitt threw seven innings and struck out 11 when the Padres visited Citi Field in late July. The Padres have a real shot at winning this series, especially if they can get a good start and a win out of Yu Darvish in Game 1. Blake Snell is in a perfect position to succeed, as the Mets have struggled with lefties, especially since Marte went down.

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