UFC 291 Main Event Breakdown

At the same time, however, it’s not a championship in a traditional sense. Barring any 11th-hour postponements, UFC 291 features 12 bouts from Vivint Arena, the home of the NBA’s Utah Jazz. 

Vacant BMF Belt at Stake in UFC 291 Main Event

Highlighting the night’s activities is a lightweight bout for the Vacant BMF Belt in the UFC 291 main event. No. 2 contender Dustin Poirier (29-7, 1 NC MMA, 21-6, 1 NC UFC) squares off against No. 3 contender Justin Gaethje (24-4 MMA, 7-4 UFC).

As with all UFC headliners, the UFC 291 main event is an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round to close the show. Its winner becomes the second man to hold the BMF Belt, succeeding Jorge Masvidal, who won the strap in 2019.

When Last They Met…

Poirier and Gaethje have some history against one another. This is a rematch of a fight between the two of them from April of 2018.

On that spring night more than five years ago, the former won by fourth-round knockout in Phoenix with a nationally-televised audience watching on FOX. How will the rematch play out?

UFC 291 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the UFC 291 main event on Saturday night, Justin Gaethje stands as the taller man at 5-foot-11, compared to the 5-foot-9 frame of Dustin Poirier, who owns a two-inch reach advantage over Gaethje (72 inches to 70 inches.) In addition, he also has a half-inch leg reach advantage (40 1/2 inches to 40 inches even).

As of Friday afternoon, the oddsmakers have Dustin Poirier installed as a -150 favorite on the money line, with Justin Gaethje countering as a +120 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend, please wager responsibly.

Poirier Dubs UFC 291 Main Event “Legacy Fight”

Dustin Poirier enters the UFC 291 main event having posted a record of 4-1 in his last five fights. Most recently, he scored a third-round submission (rear-naked choke) of Michael Chandler (23-8 MMA, 2-3 UFC) back in November.

At the top of his pre-fight media session, he was presented with a pin commemorating his 75th clean doping test by UFC Senior Vice President of Athlete Health and Performance. Poirier’s 75 clean tests now put him first in that category among active competitors in the promotion after the retirement of Amanda Nunes. 

As far as the scrum itself, Poirier mentioned to John Morgan that he’s considering this main event as a career-defining moment.

“That was kind of thrown on last-minute,” Poirier said of the BMF Belt. “When we first started talking about the fight, it wasn’t brought up. It’s cool, it’s a legacy fight. That’s what my wife told me, she said ‘This is about legacy.'”

A win on Saturday would give Poirier 30 in his MMA career and would no doubt bolster his case for the UFC Hall of Fame after retirement.

Justin Gaethje Expecting a War in UFC 291 Main Event

In the other corner, Justin Gaethje has posted a record of 3-2 in his last five appearances. Last time out, he battled Rafael Fiziev (12-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC) to a majority decision win.

During his media scrum, Gaethje mentions that he’s anticipating a battle on Saturday.

“The reason that we’re all big fans of this sport is because it’s so… anything, anytime,” Gaethje began. “Any shot, one shot’s all it takes. This guy is dangerous, you know? I’ve accepted that this is a 50/50 fight in my mind. With the chance at retribution, it’s been driving me every day to work harder.”

Will he grind out his second victory in a row? Tune into the UFC 291 main event and find out.

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the UFC 291 main event looks to favor Dustin Poirier, a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, compared to Justin Gaethje, a former wrestler at the University of Northern Colorado.

Look For Poirier to Hunt For a Submission

Dustin Poirier is absolutely lethal on the ground. His win against Chandler is a textbook example of that.

During the third and final round, Poirier and Chandler were locked into a clinch. For a moment, it appeared as though Chandler completed a takedown, only for Poirier to lift him up and finish the takedown himself.

It was all Poirier, all the time from that point on. He scored with vicious ground and pound shots, taking back mount to lock up a rear-naked choke with three minutes to go.

If Poirier can take Gaethje down, watch for him to try and secure a submission. The fight may be his afterwards.

Justin Gaethje is An Impressive Striker

In the other corner, don’t discount Gaethje’s strikes. During the first round of his fight against Fiziev,  the two exchanged strikes, with the latter becoming the aggressor.

Late in the round, the tide began to turn, thanks to Gaethje landing big punches. This enabled him to wear Fiziev down as the fight progressed.

Round two saw Gaethje return to the leg kicks before piecing Fiziev up with a right hand to get out of the clinch. His kicking game and feints knocked Fiziev off of his gameplan effectively.

As long as Gaethje wears Poirier down, he can control the tempo of the UFC 291 main event. He might return from Utah as the new BMF.

Final Thoughts

This one looks to have Fight of the Year potential written all over it. Expect a slobber-knocker on Saturday night.

Prediction: Dustin Poirier by Unanimous Decision.