UFC 280 Main Event Breakdown: Oliveira vs. Makhachev

A year ago, Abu Dhabi"s Etihad Arena played host to UFC 267, a card now noteworthy for a match referee being fired from his position in the middle of the show after he failed to stop an undercard fight. Later in the same card, Glover Teixeira submitted then-titleholder Jan Blachowicz (rear-naked choke) in round two to become the light heavyweight champion in the UFC 267 main event.

ONE. MORE. WEEK!!!!

[ #UFC280 | October 22nd | Live on ESPN+ PPV: https://t.co/XPa6qal6fJ ] pic.twitter.com/3NdxSekfVw

— UFC (@ufc) October 16, 2022

Due to the time difference between Abu Dhabi and the United States, UFC 280 will take place at an earlier than normal hour. Undercard action begins this Saturday morning at 10 am ET/ 7 am PT on the promotion"s subscription-based streaming platform, UFC Fight Pass and on ESPNEWS.

Main card action will then follow at 2 pm ET/ 11 am PT on ESPN+ pay-per-view inside the United States (preorder today.)

Vacant UFC Lightweight Championship For the Taking in UFC 280 Main Event

All told, UFC 280 will feature a 14-fight card. After Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw take to the Octagon in the night"s co-main event, the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship is up for grabs in the UFC 280 main event. No. 1 contender Charles Oliveira (33-8, 1 NC MMA, 21-8, 1 NC UFC) will battle against No. 4 contender Islam Makhachev (22-1 MMA, 11-1 UFC).

As with all MMA championship fights, Saturday night"s headlining bout will be a maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round.

Lightweight Championship Vacant Since May

As you might recall, back in May of this year, the UFC 274 main event was supposed to have been for the lightweight championship when Olivera took on No. 3 contender Justin Gaethje in Phoenix the night before Mother"s Day. However, at the weigh-in on May 6, the former missed the 155-lb. championship maximum by a half-pound, (with some insinuating that the scale used at the weigh-in was faulty) resulting in the forfeiture of his belt, yet the main event proceeded as advertised.

Only Gaethje was eligible to claim the strap with a victory that Saturday evening, but Oliveira secured a first-round submission (rear-naked choke) in the headliner, resulting in the 155-lb. championship going unclaimed. Barring any issues with the scales, the title will be at stake this weekend.

UFC 280 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Odds

Heading into the UFC 280 main event on Saturday night, both Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje stand level at 5-foot-10. Oliveira gains separation from Gaethje with a 3 1/2-inch reach advantage (74 inches even to 70 1/2 inches) and a half-inch leg reach advantage (41 inches even to 40 1/2 inches.)

The oddsmakers have Islam Makhachev as a -180 favorite in this fight, with Justin Gaethje installed as a +155 underdog. If you"re wagering on the UFC 280 main event, please bet responsibly.

Oliveira Didn"t Want to Fight Makhachev in UFC 280 Main Event

Charles Olivera enters Saturday night"s headliner in the hopes of reclaiming the lightweight championship that was once his, having gone 5-0 in his last five UFC appearances. Ahead of the previously-mentioned UFC 274 main event back in May, he stopped Dustin Poirier (28-7, 1 NC MMA, 19-7, 1 NC UFC) during UFC 269 last December.

Back in August, Oliveira was interviewed by PVT on YouTube. In a video that"s since been made private, the top contender at 155 lbs. explained that Islam Makhachev was not his preferred adversary for the UFC 280 main event, accepting the bout since he"s a company man.

“I didn"t want this fight. Everyone knows it," Oliveira began. “I wanted the big payment from the other fight. However, everybody knows that I"m a UFC employee. You can"t escape that. So we tried to negotiate from every angle."

Oliveira explained that he attempted to have this fight booked for Madison Square Garden in New York City and UFC 281 on Nov. 12 on the grounds that neither man would have an advantage. Instead, the fight will go forward as the UFC 280 main event.

“But to be honest, the cage is the same anywhere in the world," he said.

Can he get the title back on Saturday night? Tune in and find out.

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Islam Makhachev Wants to Realize His Dream of Becoming the Champ

In the other corner, Islam Makhachev has posted a record of 5-0 in his last five MMA fights as part of an ongoing 11-fight winning streak across all competitions. Back in February, he scored a first-round knockout due to ground and pound shots against Bobby Green in a short-notice fight at UFC Vegas 49.

For Makhachev, a victory in the UFC 280 main event on Saturday night would be the realization of a career goal, as he mentioned in a recent interview with the UFC Russia YouTube channel.

“It"s my destiny (to become the champion)," Makhachev said, translated through onscreen subtitles. “So many years of hard training. Don"t think they"ll go to waste. I think I"m ready and mature. I think I"ll become… I have the skills, training, and everything else, but none of that matters. If it"s meant to be, I"ll be champion. If it"s not meant to be, there"s something better out there."

Holding the lightweight championship has been a dream for Islam Makhachev. A win on Saturday turns that dream into a reality.

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the UFC 280 main event looks to favor Charles Oliveira, a third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, compared to Islam Makhachev"s status as an international master of sport in combat sambo fighting.

Watch For Oliveira"s Submissions

Charles Oliveira has recorded 33 career victories in MMA, 21 of which have been by way of submission. Thus, it stands to reason that he"d try to get Islam Makhachev to tap and nap on Saturday, as was the case when he fought Gaethje back in May.

During the first round of a scheduled five, Oliveira stunned Gaethje with a right-handed punch after Gaethje pieced him up with leg kicks. Gaethje then knocked Oliveira down with an uppercut and again with a two-punch combination.

Upon Oliveira landing a combination of his own, Gaethje scored with a left-handed punch, with Oliveira returning fire thanks to a right-handed counterpunch.

This pace continued until Oliveira knocked Gaethje down with a right-handed shot and almost immediately tried to take his back. Oliveira landed some elbow shots to soften Gaethje up, taking his back and applying the needed torque to lock in the rear-naked choke.

If Oliveira is able to take Makhachev down on Saturday, it could be the opening he needs to try and lock in the submission.

Islam Makhachev Can Submit, Too

In the other corner, please do not discount Islam Makhachev"s ground game, because it"s good in its own right. Just ask Dan Hooker, who was submitted by Makhachev on Fight Island at UFC 267.

Even though the fight was slated for three rounds at five minutes per round, Makhachev needed less than half of one round to finish the job. Upon stalking Dan Hooker, Islam Makhachev dumped him with a takedown and immediately grappled with him, taking his back.

From there, it turned into a grappling fight, with Hooker keeping Makhachev in close range as a means of stifling the latter"s attempts, but it didn"t work. Makhachev transitioned to side control and eventually secured the kimura in just two minutes and 23 seconds, so if he"s able to dump Oliveira, he"ll walk away the champion.

Final Thoughts

Either one of the fights at the top of the bill at UFC 280 on Saturday night could have been the UFC 280 main event. Oliveira vs. Makhachev has Fight of the Night potential written all over it, just as Sterling vs. Dillashaw could win Fight of the Night honors.

This has the potential to be the UFC"s best show of the year. If you miss this one on Saturday afternoon, you"ll be sorry about it on Saturday night.

Prediction: Charles Oliveira by Second-Round Submission.