UFC on ESPN 49 Main Event Breakdown

This weekend, seven days removed from a phenomenal pay-per-view in UFC 290, Dana White and his staff are back at work. For the second time in three weeks, the UFC returns to its Apex facility in Las Vegas for UFC on ESPN 49 and the UFC on ESPN 49 main event

Live coverage of the card begins at 7 pm ET/ 4 pm PT with the undercard on both ESPN and ESPN+. Main card action immediately follows at 10 pm ET/ 7 pm PT.

Holm and Buena Silva Square Off in Key Women’s Bantamweight Showdown

All told, barring any further postponements between now and Saturday night, the final version of UFC on ESPN 49 will feature 13 fights. A planned heavyweight confrontation between Walt Harris and Josh Parisian was scrubbed amid a doping violation by the former.

Highlighting the action is a top-10 showdown at women’s bantamweight in the UFC on ESPN 49 main event. No. 3 contender Holly Holm (15-6 MMA, 8-6 UFC) could be one step closer to the vacant women’s bantamweight championship if she defeats No. 10 contender Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1 MMA, 5-2-1 UFC.)

As with all UFC main events, Saturday’s headliner will be an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round to close the show.

The stars of Saturday's show 🤩@HollyHolm @MayraSheetara | #UFCVegas77 pic.twitter.com/FTiBjiU7cI

— UFC (@ufc) July 13, 2023

UFC on ESPN 49 Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Heading into the UFC on ESPN 49 main event on Saturday night, Holly Holm stands as the taller contestant at 5-foot-8, compared to Mayra Bueno Silva’s 5-foot-6 frame. “The Preacher’s Daughter” owns a 2 1/2-inch reach advantage(69 inches even to 66 1/2 inches) over Mayra Bueno Silva, while “Sheetara” has a one-inch leg reach advantage (39 inches to 38 inches) over Holm.

As of Thursday afternoon, the oddsmakers have Holly Holm installed as a -175 favorite on the money line, with Mayra Bueno Silva countering as a +145 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend, please wager responsibly.

Holm Eager to Challenge for Vacant Bantamweight Championship

Holly Holm enters the UFC on ESPN 49 main event on Saturday having posted a record of 3-2 over her last five fights. She’s seeking to build off of her unanimous decision win on March 25 against Yana Santos (14-8, 1 NC MMA, 4-5 UFC) in the co-main event of UFC on ESPN 43. 

In recent weeks, the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship has become vacant after the retirement of longtime titleholder Amanda Nunes. Holm used her media availability to advocate for a title shot with a win in the main event.

“I always felt that at this point, I was one fight away from the belt anyway,” Holm said. “My goal is still the belt regardless, and if she ever wants to come out of retirement, maybe that could even happen then.”

For now, a Holm/Nunes rematch is still a dream, but it’s obvious she wants a chance at the strap. Will she take the next step toward a belt? Watch the UFC on ESPN 49 main event and find out.

Mayra Bueno Silva Wants to Bring the Pain

In the other corner, Mayra Bueno Silva has gone 3-1-1 over her last five bouts. At the present time, she’s on a three-fight winning streak.

Back in February, she submitted Lina Lansberg (10-8 MMA, 4-7 UFC) with a kneebar during UFC Vegas 69. It was Lansberg’s fourth consecutive defeat in the promotion dating back to January of 2020.

Bueno Silva also met with the media this week, telling reporters that she promises violence of the highest order.

“I want to hurt her,” Bueno Silva began. “I want to hurt her for four rounds, and then in the fifth round, I knock out Holly.”

Mayra Bueno Silva has been known to put the hurt on her opponents in recent times.  Counting a grappling match late in 2021, three out of her last four wins have come by submission. Will the sub shop be open again this week?

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the UFC on ESPN 49 main event looks to favor Mayra Bueno Silva, a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, compared to Holly Holm, a boxer and kickboxer with a blue belt in BJJ.

Holly Holm Can Kick Her Way to a Win

Although a Holly Holm knockout win hasn’t happened in a while, when it does occur, it can be something to behold. 10 years ago this month, her kicking game was on full display versus Alanna Jones.

During the second round of a scheduled three, Holm was tested with feints but opened up her playbook with a high kick. Smelling blood in the water, she unloaded with a head kick to knock Jones out on her feet less than halfway through the period.

If Holly Holm can knock Mayra Bueno Silva off of her gameplan with some high kicks, she’ll walk out of the UFC Apex a winner. Bueno Silva has a decent plan of attack, though.

Watch for Bueno Silva’s Ground Game

In the other corner, Mayra Bueno Silva has an impressive ground game. Lansberg found this out the hard way in February.

Lansberg tried to engage into the clinch with Bueno Silva early in round two, but the latter kept stifling those efforts. About a minute or so into the second stanza, she took her down.

Bueno Silva slowed down the pace of the fight while she took top mount. From there, she applied pressure on Lansberg’s head to pass into back mount, landing punches to try and soften her up, followed up by some elbow shots.

As the round closed, Bueno Silva got back to her feet, but executed a spin move to apply the torque on the kneebar, submitting Lansberg. If she can get Holm to the ground in the UFC on ESPN 49 main event, it’s her world.

Final Thoughts

At the core, this headliner is predicated on which of the two fighters gets her opponent to the ground first. We might see only one takedown here.

Prediction: Holly Holm by Unanimous Decision.