UFC 290 Co-Main Event Breakdown

As fight night draws closer, there are a number of intriguing storylines to keep abreast of. Robbie Lawler (29-16 MMA, 14-10 UFC) has already confirmed that he’ll retire as a competitor after Saturday’s card.

Bo Nickal (4-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) will also be on the card, but it won’t be against the opponent he’s spent all training camp working toward. Originally expected  to face Tresean Gore (5-2 MMA, 1-2 UFC) over the weekend, Nickal will now fight Val Woodburn (7-0 MMA, UFC promotional debut).  Nickal is a -2500 betting favorite on the card as of Wednesday.

Championship Doubleheader Begins with Flyweight Tussle in UFC 290 Co-Main Event

Oh, by the way, there are two championship fights at the top of the show, beginning with the UFC 290 co-main event from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Incumbent UFC Flyweight Champion Brandon Moreno (21-6-2 MMA, 9-6-2 UFC) will square off against No. 2 contender Alexandre Pantoja (25-5 MMA, 9-3 UFC.)

As with all UFC title fights, the UFC 290 co-main event is an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round.

This co-main promises 𝔽𝕀ℝ𝔼𝕎𝕆ℝ𝕂𝕊 💥🏆#UFC290 | Saturday | ESPN+ PPV: https://t.co/NRMgHzYwZx pic.twitter.com/piZaaSdEpr

— UFC (@ufc) July 6, 2023

The Series So Far…

Heading into the third all-time meeting between these two men, the series has been a one-sided affair, with Pantoja winning both encounters. Seven years ago, the rivalry began with an exhibition contest on The Ultimate Fighter television series, where Pantoja locked in a rear-naked choke.

Two years later, they met professionally and the result was much of the same: Pantoja winning by decision. How will the third fight play out?

UFC 290 Co-Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Going into the UFC 290 co-main event on Saturday night, Brandon Moreno stands as the taller man at 5-foot-7, compared to the 5-foot-5 frame of Alexandre Pantoja. In addition, the former owns a three-inch (70 inches to 67 inches) reach advantage and a 1 1/2-inch (38 inches even to 36 1/2 inches) leg reach advantage over the latter.

As of Thursday afternoon, the oddsmakers have Brandon Moreno installed as a -210 favorite, with Alexandre Pantoja countering as a +160 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight happening this weekend, please wager responsibly.

Can Moreno Stop the Skid Against Pantoja?

Champion Brandon Moreno has posted a 3-1-1 record over his last five UFC appearances. At the present time, he’s on a two-fight winning streak.

Last time out, he scored a third-round TKO (eye injury) versus Deiveson Figueiredo (21-3-1 MMA, 10-3-1 UFC) in UFC 283 back in January. After the fight, he spoke with Daniel Cormier.

“I was trying to be very, very smart,” Moreno said of his offensive attack that night. “I was trying to put a lot of my gameplan into this fight. The last one, I was so emotional and in this one, I was just trying to put a lot of pressure, move forward, make this guy tired. That’s it.”

Still, the fact remains that Moreno has yet to beat Pantoja across all competitions. With a full training camp behind him, can he finally pull off the win in the UFC 290 co-main event?

Alexandre Pantoja Taking No Stock in Past Fights vs. Moreno

In the other corner, Alexandre Pantoja has posted a record of 4-1 throughout his last five fights. Currently, he’s enjoying a three-fight winning streak.

Most recently, he submitted Alex Perez (24-7 MMA, 6-3 UFC) last July in UFC 277. During Pantoja’s media availability, he mentioned that the previous encounters between himself and Moreno don’t matter anymore.

“Really, this is nothing to me,” Pantoja said. “That’s a different opponent for me. One thing is I’m excited to see how much me and Moreno have evolved. Everybody’s talking about how he never evolved, about his last fight with me, and that’s what I want to see.”

Pantoja’s fought twice and won twice against Moreno. Can he go 3-for-3?

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the UFC 290 co-main event on Saturday night looks to be another one of those toss-ups. While both Pantoja and Moreno subscribe to Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Moreno owns a black belt in the discipline.

Thus, it stands to reason that this title fight could easily become a ground battle. The first takedown could be the only takedown you see.

Can Moreno Outclass Pantoja?

If Brandon Moreno is to defeat Alexandre Pantoja for the first time in his career, he’ll have to turn in the best performance of his career, one which rivals or tops his effort vs. Figueiredo early this year. Right from the command to fight, Moreno landed a double-leg takedown.

From there, he grappled with Figuereido until the latter reversed position to return to his feet. Even in the early going, you could tell this was Moreno’s night.

Throughout the contest, Moreno peppered Figueiredo up with shots and gave his opponent no chance to effectively counterstrike. All it will take for Moreno to defend his championship is to get out to a quick start and knock Pantoja off of his gameplan in the UFC 290 co-main event.

Pantoja Can End a Fight Quickly

In the other corner, please be advised that you can’t afford to look away from your screen after Alexandre Pantoja enters the Octagon for the UFC 290 co-main event. If it’s anything like his last fight against Alex Perez, you’ll miss everything.

During the first round of a scheduled three, both fighters teed off with strikes right away, but Pantoja knocked Perez down and immediately took back mount. At that point, it was only a formality as to the fight’s outcome.

Upon putting Perez in a standing chokehold, he applied the torque across his jaw to lock up a rear-naked choke in under two minutes. If Pantoja can take back mount early, the co-main event is his.

Final Thoughts

This looks to be a great fight on Saturday. As we’ve chronicled during the film study over the last few minutes, we have a grappling contest on our hands. Who takes his opponent to the mat first in the UFC 290 co-main event?

Prediction: Brandon Moreno by Unanimous Decision.